Federal election 2016: Greatest challenge, greatest risk for Liberal leader

Malcolm Turnbull has embarked on the greatest challenge, and faces the biggest risk, of his life.

If he fails, he will be historically humiliated, the Liberal Party devastated and, as the Prime Minister himself contends, the Australian economy will be “stopped”.

Turnbull is convinced that by finally calling the election, the entire political equation will change: Bill Shorten will face a fierce focus; Labor’s policies will be torn apart; third parties will endorse the Coalition and his advocacy of a clear economic plan will be recognised over the long campaign.

He is right about one thing: this election, like no other since 1993, will be decided during the campaign, because it starts with a revitalised opposition, huge indecision about the leaders, a government that has stalled its momentum and vast uncertainty about the economic good of the budget — the greatest since the Keating government’s last budget before the 1996 election loss.

Since the beginning of the year, the Opposition Leader and Labor have created momentum, and shaped the political debate to be about “fairness” versus “privilege”, and the Liberal Party has been complacent under Turnbull.

The challenge is all the greater because Turnbull’s election pitch is about general economic growth, long-term business investment and incremental tax reform aimed at “our generations to come”, with little for the vast majority of workers to identify as rewards today.

The economic plan is at the heart of Turnbull’s test because he promised economic leadership, made the budget an election event and chose to reject more radical tax reforms or offer wider tax cuts. He is appealing to the greater economic good, generational improvement and having Australia’s “greatest years ahead” by asking grandparents to make sacrifices through superannuation so grandchildren can get jobs in the future.

Shorten has vowed to “put ­people first” and provide “budget repair that is fair” as he presses home retail political advantages offering help for families and small business.

“This election is much more than a choice between parties and personalities,” he said. “This election is a choice about what sort of Australia that we want to live in.”

Turnbull has to argue that tax breaks in the pre-election budget given to all businesses over time will create “jobs and growth” as Newspoll shows there is great indecision about what the budget means for the economy, with more than one in three voters unsure whether it is good or bad.

As well, there are strong views that those on less than $100,000 are worse off and those on more than $100,000 are evenly split ­between worse and better off. The 2016 budget has been better ­received than the 2014 horror budget but not as well as Joe Hockey’s last in 2015. Going into the election, there is no appeal in the budget for half the population that pays no net tax and anger among those who pay the most — there is no clear constituency gain for the Coalition and no budget bounce.

Having taken over the prime ministership in September, Turnbull took upon himself the task of restoring the Coalition in the polls and, more importantly, providing economic leadership. The poll surge after the removal of Tony Abbott is gone and the Coalition begins the election campaign in an election-losing position, with Turn­bull’s personal support a disappointment for the third survey in a row. Shorten has not missed this aspect of public concern about Liberal disunity following the leadership challenge and hammers home the image of a government at “civil war” while Labor has learned its lesson about revolving doors on the leader’s office.