Apocalypse now: stench of panic grips Liberals

Scott Morrison is battling almost impossible odds to win the next election.

The time has come to concede the reality of an apocalyptic vision for the future of the Liberal Party and the Coalition government.

Until now, it has been possible for Liberals to grasp at straws, like Bill Shorten’s unpopularity, and point to undeniable positives, the strength of the economy, as Scott Morrison battles almost impossible odds to win the next election.

But after the Victorian Liberal rout, there is a stench of panic among federal MPs. The “departure lounge” is filling with those planning careers after politics; some ministers are so shell-shocked by the leadership fights they have been rendered useless.

Factional fighting has become an end in itself, ignoring election damage, and John Howard’s “broad church” appears split asunder, incapable of reconciliation.

There is also a palpable feeling that some are looking at becoming opposition leader.

Yet the worst of it for the Liberal Party is that there are equal and opposing camps both convinced the party must first be destroyed to enable it to be rebuilt in their own (contradictory) image.

Without hope of consensus, ministers and backbenchers, some of whom won’t be around after the next election, are proferring their views of Liberal salvation founded on fiscal conservatism, market intervention, tax handouts, as well as social “progression” or conservatism over identity politics, religious rights, gender issues, promotion for women, freedom of speech, climate change and essentially what the Liberal Party “stands for”.

The bitterness — stretching back to the removal of Tony ­Abbott and enlivened and deepened by the removal of Malcolm Turnbull — taints every Coalition decision, deflects every prime ­ministerial attempt to get back on track and corrodes government authority by the day. The Victorian election loss may have cracked the facade of hope but it was yesterday’s debacle in parliament that unleashed the floods.

Facing a rampant Labor, MPs frightened by the anti-Liberal swing in ­Victoria, corrosive leaks and growing ­dissatisfaction among supporters of Turnbull, Morrison decided to put his strategy on the line in one bold move.

The Prime Minister, a day after declaring the election would be a personal battle between him and Shorten, announced the budget would be brought forward to April 2, when he would confirm a budget surplus for the first time in a ­decade. This basically locked in the election date for May 11 or 18.

It would switch the focus to the economy for a campaign that Shorten and Labor could not be trusted to deliver a surplus, bring down debt or cut taxes.

This had been the Coalition’s strong point for years. Yet the haunting presence of Turnbull reached out via Julia Banks — a Victorian Liberal MP who had spoken out against bullying against women in the party and the “reactionary Right” who removed Turnbull. She cut Morrison off at the knees. As he unveiled his strategy on the economy, she defected to the crossbench, denounced the party and opened the prospect of the government failing in the house and being forced to a March poll.

The panic among government MPs deepened, as did the bitterness. In question time, Morrison had to watch as Kelly O’Dwyer could not deny in parliament that she had described her party as ­homophobic and anti-women.

There is no such thing as a certain election but if ever there was the basis for a ­vision of a catastrophic Liberal loss next year and a cataclysmic outlook for the party, it was looking at Banks personifying all that is wrong with the government.