Scrutiny of policy will put Xenophon’s popularity to test

Premier Nick Xenophon — it is such an incongruous concept that I can imagine the senator laughing at the idea over a coffee in Adelaide’s East End.

This peripatetic populist lives to be a thorn in the side of premiers and prime ministers; surely he couldn’t go native?

He won’t. The responsibilities of executive government hold no allure for this clever politician. Besides, Xenophon has repeatedly ruled out taking a ministry or joining a coalition, let alone running the show himself.

But there are other reasons. Let’s be realistic. He has no formal party structure, few experienced staff or colleagues, no team of plausible candidates and no coherent collection of policies. And the initial excitement at his candidature might wane with some campaign scrutiny.

He is the anti-gambling activist who fell into parliament — with less than 3 per cent of the vote in 1997 — and has used his own brand of stunts and puns to become a political force. A couple of people in SA and three others in Canberra have been elected under his banner — effectively under his name — but not on any particular issue.

Xenophon is the friendly, articulate and intelligent face of the protest vote: Pauline Hanson without the xenophobia (pun intended); Bob Brown without the economic vandalism; and David Leyonhjelm without the guns.

The high polling published today (30 per cent statewide) should be taken seriously. He leads by the length of the straight as preferred premier on 41 per cent compared with 21 per cent for the incumbent, Labor’s Jay Weatherill, and the same for the Liberal opposition’s Steven Marshall.

Xenophon translates into votes: he won 20 per cent of the SA upper house vote in 2006, almost 25 per cent of SA’s Senate vote in 2013, and almost 22 per cent last year. Apart from his canny posturing, the reason is simple: the major parties are on the nose and SA is in the doldrums.

Xenophon does not have solutions. His SA Best website just copies the glib federal policies of his Nick Xenophon Team page. He says he’ll shrink the SA parliament. What about the public sector?

He has faced too little scrutiny. If Xenophon is to choose the next government — as looks likely — he first needs to say whether or not he favours a change of government or what criteria he will use to decide his support.