Next week in parliament is going to be messy

John Barilaro in Canberra today. Picture: Kym Smith

It is one thing to talk about the personal and internal Coalition betrayal from John Barilaro. His comments were cowardly because, given his position, he should have told Malcolm Turnbull directly and privately before going public. They were also politically inept, seemingly just spilling out for no particular reason with no discernible strategy — and from a person who really has no role to play in any of this.

That said, let us not kid ourselves about the importance of what he has said. The idea that Turnbull might consider resigning and handing over to someone else is being discussed in the Coalition.

Relentlessly buffeted by a vaudevillian Senate, denuded House of Representatives, divided Coalition, disappointed green-left media and a vengeful right-wing commentariat, Turnbull is battling daily to keep his head above water. All the while his self-imposed KPI of Newspoll supremacy counts against him.

As someone who has worked with Turnbull and knows the dynamic within the party all too well, it will not surprise me if no one has had the courage to float the resignation proposition with the Prime Minister. In fact I would be almost certain no one has or will be so brave. But they are discussing it among themselves.

It is silly to pretend otherwise.

Coalition MPs are despondent and pessimistic. Many are regretful for the leadership change they foisted upon the Liberal Party and the nation just over two years ago. Others are angry that Abbott has remained as a prominent irritant. They are worried not just about losing government but their own seats, and not in two years but possibly in just a few months given the uncertainty created by the dual citizenship shambles.

Yet they know the last thing the Coalition could withstand is another leadership conflagration. They cannot afford to tear down Turnbull the way they tore down Tony Abbott. That would be turn them into a bad joke.

Many recognise it is not in Turnbull’s character to walk away. And there is a very strong argument to say that whatever the prospects, the Coalition must now stick with Turnbull, provide stability and muddle their way through.

The point is, however, that if they are to attempt to reinvigorate themselves either under new leadership or by admitting error and going back to Abbott, it can only be done in an orderly handover. Many MPs and operatives are privately discussing that the only hope would be for Turnbull to resign and Abbott or a new team to take over.

There is talk of a possible Julie Bishop, Scott Morrison and Christopher Pyne grouping that would see Bishop as prime minister, Morrison as deputy and Pyne in foreign affairs. This sounds like a switch from turbulence to chaos. But Coalition MPs are talking about it.

When the gay marriage reform passes parliament next week that might be as good a day as Turnbull gets as Prime Minister. It is the signature achievement he will own in history. The rationale goes that he could resign on the back of that with a truly historic achievement delivered.

Then the government could attempt, one more time, to reset.

I am not saying this will happen. I am not saying anyone has had the spine to even mention this option to Turnbull. I am just saying that many Liberals are fantasising and muttering about this possibility as they stare into the clouds of their coffee. And next week is going to be messy.