Newspoll: Coalition has a chance of winning the election

Given the Coalition’s seemingly endemic propensity for self-harm, current minority status and policy timidity, Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his team face a huge task.

The commentariat and anti-conservative agitators — to the extent that these differ — were very quick to write off the Coalition last year. Enthused by Malcolm Turnbull’s sabotage of Wentworth, Julia Banks’ betrayal of her electorate and mischief-making by a range of other disaffected Malcontents, the commentators decided the overthrow of Turnbull would lead to annihilation for the Coalition.

This was never likely; for much the same reason that, despite his own political mistakes and entrenched failing in the polls, Turnbull was always a chance to win re-election. The Coalition for all its superficial self-harm and ham-fisted politicking has a far superior policy prescription and a much better record of government than Labor.

This is undeniable on the evidence. For all of its turmoil, the Coalition has axed and cut taxes (even if it foolishly increased the top personal income tax rate for three years and fiddled with superannuation provisions) rather than imposed new burdens. It has outlined a plan for further personal and corporate tax cuts.

The Coalition has solved perhaps the worst public policy failing in our post-war history by reimposing border security — stopping the boats — and re-establishing the integrity of our immigration program while boosting its generous humanitarian intake.

Under Tony Abbott, Turnbull and Scott Morrison the fiscal repair task has been slower than many would have liked but it has been steady and a surplus is within reach. More than a million jobs have been created and major free trade deals have been negotiated with our main trading partners and the Pacific region.

Rivalling border protection as the worst post-war policy failing has been the undermining of our national energy market through climate measures, especially the renewable energy target, and the Coalition must share some of the blame — but at least it has called time on the worst of it. This climate folly cost Turnbull his job (twice) and there is much more to do because as South Australia and Victoria showed us last week, the costs are dramatic and intolerable.

Lined up against all this are Labor prescriptions to: increase taxes on housing, retirement incomes and capital gains; force up energy prices and system instability by doubling renewables targets; bolster union control of the labour market; and risk more border chaos by undermining key elements of the border protection regime.

Additionally, there is the obvious point that federal elections are almost always close, usually fought out in the two-party preferred range of 47/53 which falls within the error margin of most polls. So those who were predicting a rout six months out were either foolish or sharing some wishful thinking.

Given the Coalition’s seemingly endemic propensity for self-harm, current minority status and policy timidity it faces a huge task. This is complicated by an unfavourable redistribution and the looming retirement of a series of sitting members.

But the significant bounce in the Newspoll today is a timely reminder of crucial realities; primarily that this, like most, federal elections will be hard fought in a series of marginal seat battles where Labor will be helped by the unions, GetUp and a loose cabal of green Left independents masquerading as centrists.

It also demonstrates that the Coalition, if it chooses the right policy battles during a period of reasonable economic progress, has a chance of winning. Especially if it embraces strong and justifiable negative tactics that warn of the perils a Shorten Labor government could bring — a tried, proven and, you would think, mandatory political ploy that was inexplicably eschewed at the last election.