Malcolm Turnbull: Five lessons one week into his prime ministership

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (left) and Australian Immigration Minister Peter Dutton. Credit: AAP

Five lessons one week in to Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership.

NOTHING SUCCEEDS LIKE SUCCESS

Early talk of ongoing disunity and instability within the government is overcooked. Even before a single opinion poll had been returned, some Liberal MPs who remained loyal to Tony Abbott until the end were nursing their wounds and pledging undying loyalty to Malcolm Turnbull. “That was the most gut-wrenching experience I’ve ever been through,” one of them told me, “I am bolted on to the new leader now because I never want to go through that again.”

You see, even just by winning the brutal leadership challenge, Turnbull’s success suddenly increases his numbers beyond the day of the spill and gives him a chance for further success.

Besides, everyone knew his poll numbers would provide a boost; that was the cold calculation that drove the change. And while Newspoll already has the government ahead 51/49, expect the polling to improve further. The personal approval ratings tend to be a lead indicator and after Turnbull’s positive start and refreshing ministerial shake-up, we can expect the public support to build for a while yet.

The animosity from some Abbott loyalists is understandable, including many voters. But these polling improvements will also help to settle them down, as the prospect of certain victory provides vindication. Turnbull’s messaging need to be less about triumphalism and more about continuity as he reaches out to the conservative base to bring them along for the ride.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (left) and Australian Immigration Minister Peter Dutton. Credit: AAP

THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE GREATER THE RISKS

It is annoying for the Abbott loyalists that Turnbull has not proffered policy changes. But this will tend to be reassuring for mainstream voters. Sometimes style does matter in politics and the Turnbull ascension will work best if there is a focus on pushing the same policy priorities in a more engaging style. In other words the Abbott government’s significant policy foundations should not be disregarded just because its polling was poor.

For instance, there understandably is no appetite in the mainstream for a relaxation in border security and a return to chaos on our shores. This is why keeping Peter Dutton as Immigration Minister was a potent symbol of policy continuity as well as one of appeasement to the conservative faction.

On gay marriage while Turnbull favoured an early conscience vote and Abbott’s reluctance led to a messy process, the outcome of offering a plebiscite in the next term is sensible and popular (and actually is more likely to succeed than a conscience vote). Stick with it.

On climate change, most voters are happy the carbon tax is gone, happy with the emissions reductions targets the nation has foreshadowed and, perhaps most importantly, happy the seemingly endless climate debate has subsided. Turnbull needs to continue existing policies, at least until our major trading partners do a lot more or put a price on carbon (which might never happen). National security also must remain a priority. Any softening would be reckless given the current threats.

So there are four key areas where Turnbull should not change the government’s formula. Which leaves the economy as his key focus; the broad aim will obviously be the same, to repair the budget and grow the economy. But given this was Abbott’s greatest weakness (along with outgoing treasurer Joe Hockey) there is vast room for improvement. Turnbull is right to focus on productivity and innovation — as the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said recently, economic reform is really about engendering economic growth.

Here Turnbull’s mastery of the detail will be useful and he deliberately seeks to make this the main conversation point of national affairs. But he must deliver reform. Taxation and workplace relations are two key areas, and there are already signs he might be able to charm a little bit more through the Senate.

Leigh Sales interviewing Malcolm Turnbull on 7.30. Credit: ABC

YOUR FRIENDS ARE YOUR BIGGEST DANGER

Because of this need to stay true to the Liberal Party’s conservative base and established policies, one of Turnbull’s greatest risks will come from his supporters. While people fell off their chairs seeing Leigh Sales’ fawning interview on the ABC last night, the new Prime Minister will do his government enormous damage if he is lured by the siren song of the media and the Left. They will urge him to do more on climate and gay marriage and to wind back the tough border security measures. And they will accuse him of not being true to his beliefs if he refuses — but he should simply wear that criticism.

If he starts to win the undying praise of the ABC and The Guardian, it will be a sure sign he is drifting off course and away from the political centre. So just as interviews with right wing warriors like Alan Jones have often been a trap for conservative leaders — leading them towards overly harsh positions and rhetoric — the temptation for Turnbull will be on the left. If he finds himself in furious agreement with Radio National or the Twitterati, he will find he is out of step with swinging voters.

Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Credit: AAP

KEEP BILL SHORTEN CLOSE

Bill Shorten was always looking unlikely to win the next election and now it gets much harder. His party is stuck in a trap where the membership wants more reform to make it more democratic but the unions are unwilling to give up power. If the party does make changes there will be some benefit in no longer being seen as a plaything of the unions. But if that happens, Shorten wouldn’t survive as leader — Anthony Albanese of Tanya Plibersek would be the choice of the members.

So the ALP seems stuck with the unions and Shorten. And with more disturbing revelations emerging daily from the royal commission into union corruption, this is looking like an increasingly unfortunate combination.

So Turnbull should be kind to Shorten. Welcome and encourage his bipartisan support on as much as he possibly can. And be ready to portray him as unelectable when the time comes. Under Shorten, Labor has stayed on the wrong side of the carbon tax, border protection, budget repair and now, it seems, gay marriage issues. It seems to have done nothing to get ready for a policy contest, preferring to focus on Abbott’s unpopularity.

Turnbull worked for Kerry Packer when he sold the Nine Network to Alan Bond, prompting Packer’s famous line: “You only get one Alan Bond in your lifetime, and I’ve had mine.” If he plays it right, the new Prime Minister might one day say something similar about Shorten.

THE POLL GENIE IS OUT OF THE BOTTLE

Turnbull made a mistake when he justified his leadership challenge by noting that Abbott had lost 30 Newspolls in a row. He didn’t need to say it because everyone (especially his colleagues) knew it. And while it was a statement of fact, there is now a serious downside.

The new Prime Minister has made himself captive to the polls. He won’t be able to brush off poor polling the way others have often tried to do. Still, every leader tries to stay ahead in the polls, it is part of the short term focus we have become obsessed about in modern politics. So it doesn’t change much about the dynamic for Turnbull; it just increases the pressure.