Bob Carr's embrace of poll numbers is refreshing

Newspoll leaders net satisfaction rating

INCOMING Foreign Minister Bob Carr used his first interview at the parliamentary doors yesterday to point out that it is "striking" that 18 months out from the next election, the government trails the Coalition by only six percentage points on the two-party-preferred vote - 47 to 53 per cent. It certainly is.

Most politicians shy away from commenting on the polls, leaving the elephant to sit quietly in the corner of the room. Not Carr; he pre-empted questioning by raising the subject before any journalist did. Carr's colleagues could learn a thing or two from the approach. It suggests confidence, which Labor badly needs. Carr understands from first-hand experience that governments don't always lead oppositions in the opinion polls.

During his first term as NSW premier (1995-99), Labor trailed the Coalition on the primary vote on no fewer than 17 of 25 occasions, according to Newspoll. It led the Coalition for two consecutive polls only once - the final two polls ahead of the 1999 election.

One year after Carr's March 1995 election victory, Labor's primary vote fell to 31 per cent - the same percentage federal Labor's vote fell back to yesterday.

Nevertheless, Carr's confidence belies the significant problem Labor currently has with its leader. Not that the Coalition could be happy with the equally (un)popular Tony Abbott. According to the net satisfaction ratings of the two major party leaders, both are deeply unpopular. Julia Gillard's net satisfaction rating is -34, the Opposition Leader's is -26.

Gillard leads Abbott only marginally on the preferred PM ratings, 39 to 37 per cent. A whopping 24 per cent of voters are uncommitted, presumably unable to stomach registering support for either candidate.

Even in Carr's darkest days as premier of NSW, he dominated opposition leaders on the preferred premier ratings. And Carr's net satisfaction rating never fell anywhere near as low as Gillard's.

Even a moderately unpopular prime minister should be able to unpick Abbott, as Paul Keating did to John Hewson. Not this prime minister. Gillard continues to suffer under a weight of public cynicism about her. The way she took over from Kevin Rudd, the carbon tax backflip, reneging on the pokies deal with Andrew Wilkie and perhaps even some gender bias have all added up to what seems like an impossible task - a political comeback ahead of the next election.

That said, Carr makes a valid point. A six-percentage-point difference on the two-party vote after everything that has happened in this parliamentary term is "striking". It's nice to see a pollie prepared to confidently comment on the polls.