Bravo, an excellent speech, pity about the timing

MALCOLM Turnbull gave one of his best political speeches yesterday when he explained why he would cross the floor and vote for the government's emissions trading scheme.

It's just that it came six months too late to save his leadership.

During what was a divisive internal debate last year for the Liberal Party (and the Coalition), Turnbull attempted to convince his colleagues to back Kevin Rudd's ETS by appealing to a fear of electoral oblivion if they didn't.

The problem for Turnbull was that many MPs never held such fears. While Turnbull also mounted constructive arguments last year such as those he articulated yesterday - the merits of a market mechanism (inherently liberal), the importance of action with long-term sustainability (a nod to the environment) and the need to give businesses certainty (if they were going to invest in clean technology) - he didn't make them the focus of his bid to win over colleagues.

In fact, Turnbull was never especially interested in winning his colleagues over when he was leader - at least not by talking directly to them. As leader, he had a view that they should adhere to his instincts and follow his lead, which was spelt out in media interviews. Remember "I will not lead a party that is not as committed to effective action on climate change as I am"? That particular threat was spelled out on radio.

Severely damaged by the OzCar debacle, verballing colleagues was never going to work for Turnbull. On the contrary, many Liberals were looking for an excuse to remove him.

While Turnbull had warnings that his backbench was concerned about his desire to pass the ETS before the Copenhagen conference, he chose to try and do so anyway, banking on his force of personality to carry the day.

He fell just one vote short.

Had Turnbull employed the arguments he used in parliament yesterday, contacting his backbench one by one, he probably would have won more than enough support to carry his party with him.

Of course, watching Tony Abbott doggedly attack Labor's ETS following the failure of the Copenhagen conference, few Liberals would regret Turnbull's failure to make the powerful arguments he did yesterday when it could have saved his leadership late last year. All the same, it was an excellent speech.