Braddon and Longman Labor still

The by-elections in Longman and Braddon today are likely to be very close.

It’s not surprising the latest Newspoll shows neither the Labor Party nor the LNP / Liberals will achieve the tally ­required to win either seat on ­primary vote alone and this means preferences will decide the result.

In Longman, the preferences of the One Nation candidate are expected to determine who will represent the seat. This is the second occasion One Nation has acted as kingmaker in Longman. At the 2016 election, One Nation preferences enabled Susan Lamb to topple the sitting member, Wyatt Roy.

In 2016, 56 per cent of One ­Nation preferences flowed to Labor. If such a result was observed at the ballot box on Saturday, based on the latest Newspoll figures, Ms Lamb would romp home with 54 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote.

In the past we have allocated preferences based on the previous election, but One Nation preferencing has been highly volatile and, given the evidence of the preference flows at recent state elections, it is very unlikely Ms Lamb will receive anything like 56 per cent of One Nation preferences.

The seat of Longman largely comprises the state electorates of Pumicestone and Glass House.

In both these seats, One Nation candidates secured 23 per cent of the vote in the 2017 state election.

In Pumicestone, the One Nat­ion candidate preferenced the LNP ahead of Labor and this resulted in 71.6 per cent of his preferences going to the LNP candidate.

In Glass House, Tracey Bell-Henselin of One Nation preferenced Labor ahead of the LNP, but this still resulted in 62 per cent of her preferences ending up with the LNP candidate.

In Longman, One Nation is preferencing LNP’s Trevor ­Ruthenberg ahead of Labor’s Ms Lamb. If the LNP receives about 70 per cent of One Nation preferences, based on the most recent Newspoll figures, the LNP is likely to just fall short of winning.

In Braddon, Labor’s Justine Keay looks set to reclaim the seat on the back of a strong preference flow from the Greens candidate and Craig Garland.

Previous elections suggest Labor can bank 80 per cent of Greens preferences but the flow from Mr Garland is more difficult to predict. It depends on the extent to which his voters follow the “how to vote card”.

If less than 50 per cent of Mr Garland’s voters direct their preferences to Labor, or if any of the other minor party candidates yield a significant number of preferences for the Liberal candidate, then the result will go down to the wire.

However, based on the latest Newspoll figures, the most likely scenario is that Labor will win Longman and Braddon.

David Briggs is managing director of YouGov Galaxy