Jack the Insider: Living the dream of not going to Rio

Brazilian paratroops stand guard outside the Maracana stadium in Rio. Picture: AFP

Once Jarryd Hayne dreamed of playing in the NFL. Now he is living my dream of not going to the Rio Olympics.

I dreamt I wouldn’t go to the Rio Olympics and in some three weeks that dream will become a reality. Frankly, a trip to Rio sounds pretty awful for any reason. When my baby smiles at me, I go to the couch at home and am glad of it.

Unsurprisingly, that august group of sporting administrators, the International Olympic Committee has given Rio the thumbs up.

“Rio 2016 is ready to welcome the world,” said Nawal El Moutawakel, chair of the IOC’s co-ordination commission for Rio 2016, after a whirlwind tour of Rio’s Olympic facilities last week.

Then again the IOC gave the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi a clean bill of health even though many athletes’ rooms in hastily constructed dorms featured no beds and toilets that flushed away bodily wastes nowhere else but the bathroom floor.

Much has been made of the Zika virus in Rio, an especially nasty viral infection for pregnant women and women considering pregnancy at some later date facing a raft of hideous congenital deformities to their newborns. For the rest of those in Rio, it promises to inflict symptoms similarly debilitating to a nasty dose of influenza.

A fisherman paddles in the polluted Rodrigo de Freitas Lagoon, venue for the rowing events at the Rio Games. Picture: Getty

Once the games get underway, you’ll notice Australia’s rowing team will resemble a HazChem team as they prepare to paddle about in water so foul, that no self-respecting cholera bacteriophage would consider taking a dip.

Politically Brazil is a basket case. It makes our fragmented national politics look like tea and crumpets on the Yarralumla lawns.

Dilma Rousseff> picture: Getty

The current president, Dilma Rousseff, has stood down and is facing impeachment. Almost one half of the members of Brazil’s bicameral legislature have either been convicted of or are currently facing corruption charges.

Police and emergency services personnel routinely go on strike and athletes and spectators arriving at Rio’s Galeão International Airport stroll past the cheery sign posted by the police union: “Welcome to Hell. Police and firefighters don’t get paid. Whoever comes to Rio de Janeiro will not be safe.”

I can’t recall when an Olympics was to be hosted by a city facing so much turmoil.

Brazil’s economy is going through its fifth quarter of recession and has recorded negative GDP growth in seven of the last eight quarters. The unemployment rate stands at 11.2 per cent with over 11 million workers unable to find employment. There is no way out of the doldrums while the political imbroglio continues.

Brazil’s homicide rate sits uncomfortably in the top 20 in the world. The US State Department lists Brazil’s crime rate as ‘critical’. Kidnappings sometimes called ‘quicknappings’ where tourists and wealthy locals are held up, driven to ATMs and forced to withdraw cash, are commonplace. Property crime — bag snatches and pickpocketing in tourist sectors like Rio’s beaches and the hotel precincts happen so often, they are ignored by police.

What could possibly go wrong for Rio 2016?

The answer to that is what could possibly go right?

Violent crime in Rio is in decline, coming off a high ten years ago where the homicide rate was 35.4 per 100,000. It is now 23.4 per 100,000. Admittedly that’s not a great reduction. By comparison, Australia’s homicide rate is 1 per 100,000.

Brazil successfully hosted the FIFA World Cup two years ago — arguably the world’s largest sporting event, dwarfing the numbers who watch the Olympics on television screens around the world. The 2014 FIFA World Cup was a success by any measure even though the home team could only manage fourth place. Many matches were played in cities outside Rio and Sao Paolo where crime rates remain out of control but tourists and locals alike got on with it and there were no substantial problems.

While the US State Department places Brazil on the critical list for personal and property crime and political corruption, the South American republic is regarded as low risk in terms of terrorism. There are frequent political rallies throughout the country which can turn violent but there are no known indigenous terrorist groups in Brazil and the non-aligned country is not targeted by any known external terrorist organisation.

There will be 85,000 security personnel active around the Olympic Games’ venues. While many of Rio’s criminals will see the Olympics as a crime bonanza, the majority of the crime is likely to happen away from where the athletes compete and people congregate to watch them.

The US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has downgraded its earlier warnings on Zika, the virus transmitted mainly by the Aedes species of mosquito. Rio’s organising committee has dispatched workers to reduce those mozzie numbers which won’t be as prevalent in August and Brazil’s late summer in any case.

Nevertheless, hygiene and communicable disease is likely to cause some unpredictable results in the various athletic competitions. Some favourites to stand on the acme of the podium may not get there. Be it Zika or a raft of other tropical and non-tropical diseases or just a bad case of the Rio runs, some athletes will struggle to compete at their peak.

In any Olympic Games village, those afflicted with illness will be isolated to prevent spread of whatever it is they are suffering from and this necessarily will affect form, preparation and confidence.

Thus Rio is likely to throw up a few long shot victors, perhaps even some of the Stephen Bradbury- last-man-standing type while others more favoured will only hit their PBs by way of a quick sprint to the brassco.

In other words, Rio is not going to be all botch-ups and disgraces. Indeed, it promises to make for compelling viewing.

All the same, I reckon this Olympics will be one best witnessed from the safety of your couch.