Abbott in strife close to home

JULIA Gillard hasn't had her leadership elevated in the way Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has regarding how she has responded to the floods and cyclone. Gillard hasn't cut an especially warm figure. (She has looked wooden according to Tony Abbott.)

But I doubt too many voters would be that impressed with Abbott's demeanor either. His decision to sign off on an email pleading for donations "to help our campaign against Labor's flood tax" sent out the day Cyclone Yasi was set to disrupt so many lives was unedifying.

Labor is of course doing all that it can to ensure Abbott's lapse of judgment translates into damage to his brand. But the issue isn't whether this one mistake hurts the Opposition Leader. It is that such mistakes may occur more frequently now that press secretary Claire Kimball has left his office. She was a long-time Abbott loyalist, having worked as his press secretary when he was health minister.

The unofficial explanation for Kimball's departure is personal reasons: Kimball suffered a death in the family. While I well understand the impact the death of a parent can have, it isn't the only reason she left. Kimball wasn't getting along with Abbott's chief of staff Peta Credlin, wife of the federal director Brian Loughnane. The relationship between Kimball and Credlin deteriorated significantly after the election campaign.

Barely a day goes by that I don't receive a telephone call from a Liberal complaining about the divisions inside Abbott's office (OK, I admit occasionally the call is made rather than received.)

Disgruntled staffers and MPs talk of a growing divide between the Abbott "loyalists" and the "careerists", as Credlin and her supporters are disparagingly referred to. There is clearly a campaign mounting to have Credlin removed, with journalists such as me being backgrounded about her supposed shortcomings.

But more than a few shadow ministers also claim Credlin is a good operator, valuable for her understanding of how government works. ( She was chief of staff for Helen Coonan as communications minister.)

Credlin also has worked as a senior adviser or chief of staff to all three Liberal leaders in opposition, giving her a rounded perspective on the challenges of sitting on the wrong side of the Treasury benches.

It was Credlin's decision to do more travel with Abbott that finally pushed Kimball over the edge in deciding to move on. Kimball felt her autonomy was being compromised and her role partially shut down.

Apart from the fact Kimball was one of the few staffers who could control Abbott's occasional political brain explosions, she was also an important safeguard against mistakes emanating from the office. She never would have authorised an email such as the one sent during the week.

But the unedifying donations request wasn't Credlin's fault; it was her husband's, who as federal director apparently authorised it.

Opposition leaders' offices and federal secretariats need a healthy distance in their dealings, which can be a little difficult when the same family is running both divisions. One MP, who is a supporter of Credlin, claimed that those out to get her are targeting the wrong family member. The MP is critical of Loughnane.

Abbott is a traditionalist who prefers to leave the management of his office to his chief of staff, concentrating on his own job. It is a lesson learned from John Howard's experiences in the 1980s and 90s when on his first go around as leader he intervened in the daily management of his office too much. In the later instance he left it to seasoned professionals while getting on with being prime minister.

It is highly unusual for a chief of staff to travel with the leader. How does one manage an office remotely while on the road? Arthur Sinodinos didn't do it, travelling only to special events with his boss. And if the divide in the office is as bad as some are saying, Credlin may be better off staying in Canberra to sort it out.

Abbott needs to be careful. He has an enormous amount of goodwill within the Liberal Party. He served up a remarkable election performance even if he didn't win. He deserves a full term as Opposition Leader and another shot at an election. It would be a cruel blow if office difficulties brought down Abbott after such a successful first year as leader.

It may simply be that Abbott loyalists don't like the new management style that Credlin the careerist is instituting. Or that it treads on previously demarcated lines. And there are plenty of Liberals who suffer from the misogynistic trait of not liking to take orders from a woman. But irrespective of which side is right, the loyalists and careerists not getting along divides an already narrow band of talent that needs to work together if the opposition wants to stay united.

Kimball isn't the only Abbott loyalist to have left the office. Stephen Galilee did so shortly after the election. He was Abbott's chief political strategist and, like Kimball, had worked for Abbott when he was a minister. I also understand the most loyal of Abbott advisers, Maxine Sells, is confiding in close supporters that she is considering leaving the Abbott office too. There is no suggestion she has any personal difficulty with Credlin in particular.

Sells was Abbott's chief of staff during his entire time as a frontbencher in the Howard government, returning to run the policy unit after he became Opposition Leader. If she does resign, it will be a body blow to Abbott's chances of doing the grunt work that is necessary to be a viable alternative government.

If the divisions in Abbott's office are considered alongside divisions at the upper levels of the Liberal leadership team (for example the toxic relationship between shadow treasurer Joe Hockey and the man who wants his job, shadow finance spokesman Andrew Robb), there are a multitude of factors capable of inhibiting the opposition.

At the moment that doesn't much matter because the government is struggling. However that may not always be the case.