‘I’m back’: Maverick Winston Peters returns as NZ’s ‘white knight’

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has returned to the political fray. Picture: Getty Images.

Winston Peters is once again New Zealand’s white knight, or so he would have voters believe.

White knight syndrome affects nearly all political systems – with the rise of a person whose pulsating belief is that only they can rescue the nation from its decline.

The US has Donald Trump and the UK has Boris Johnson as their white knights.

For NZ, that figure is the Winston Peters – former Foreign Minister and leader of the New Zealand First party. He believes the nation needs saving and that only he can be that saviour.

Until recently, Peters was absent from the political battlefield after voters roundly rejected him at the 2020 general election, in a crushing defeat that saw his party ousted from both government and parliament. That election rewarded Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party a clear parliamentary majority – a first under New Zealand’s proportional representation electoral system, while it seemed the sun had finally set on the career of the 77-year-old elder statesman.

But now, in a powerful reversal of fortunes, he has dramatically stepped back into the fray with the same high dose of self-belief, charm and confrontational politics that has marked his turbulent public life since he first entered parliament in 1979.

“I’m back” and “help is on the way” are among Peters’ most common utterances nowadays – and with some justification.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has seen her party and her personal approval rating both fall in the polls. Picture: AFP.

NZ First is now set to mount a comeback at the 2023 general election after it registered 6.75 per cent support in recent polling, with Peters himself clambering onto the preferred Prime Minister ratings as both Ardern and her rival Christopher Luxon see their popularity fall. That’s enough to see him and a few NZ First MPs back in parliament.

If this support holds and the already close race between the centre-left governing Labour Party and the opposition centre-right National Party narrows further as expected – the most recent poll shows Labour at its lowest level since 2017 – Peters will likely reprise the role he has held before of ‘kingmaker’ (or ‘queenmaker’) based on which party he supports to form the next likely coalition government.

Peters’ resurrection should surprise few. These are confronting times for New Zealanders, with a cost of living crisis, a rise in brazen violent crime and a health system under strain. Confidence is teetering, with recent surveys finding high levels of public anger and disappointment towards Ardern and her government.

An astute judge of the national mood and a crafty campaigner with populist compulsions, Peters is actively tapping into this anger and disappointment to position himself as the person to effect a reversal of the country’s fortunes.

Christopher Luxon's National party is rising in the polls.

He encourages the idea that his party sits ideologically between Labour and National. This has allowed him a semblance of cover in entering governing arrangements with both parties, which he has done over the years.

Yet his longstanding defence of traditional values speaks to his innate conservatism. He did, after all, start out as a National MP before leaving the party under a cloud to form NZ First in 1993. But as it stands today, he is more critical of the Left than the Right.

His return to political relevance, therefore, could spell real trouble for Ardern’s re-election prospects. Adding to her vulnerability is Peters’ apparent personal animus towards Labour. No Kiwi politician holds a grudge like he and rarely does Peters let a speech pass without airing of his historical and contemporary grievances.

They include alleging the current Labour Government is unravelling much of NZ First’s work during the last term, particularly the Pacific Reset, a major foreign policy shift towards the Pacific Islands launched in 2018 which has been wound down under his successor in the foreign affairs portfolio, Nanaia Mahuta despite assertive advances by China in the region.

Moreover, Peters is vocal in his opposition to the government’s push for greater co-governance with Māori, loudly derides some Labour ministers and condemns the government for being disconnected from voters.

For now, he is kinder towards the National Party and seldom turns his sights on them. He has, however, openly questioned the competency and relevance of National’s political ally – the right-wing ACT Party. There is probably a specific political calculation behind this to position NZ First as the more natural governing partner for National in a coalition government.

But predicting Peters’ next move is a chancy occupation. He can be fickle in his decision-making and is often guided by his own narrow interests – including which of the main parties best meets his cabinet position and policy demands in post-election talks.

One thing is for certain about Peters: he is like the tides. His public popularity and political influence ebbs and flows in seemingly regular fashion.

The tide has been out for Peters on several occasions since he entered parliament just over four decades ago. But it always flows back in, as it is doing so now.