Tory leadership ballot:Theresa May’s win may be Pyrrhic victory
Theresa May should look to Margaret Thatcher’s 1990 leadership win for a warning over how her own could end.
Numbers are everything in politics and British Prime Minister Theresa May - even with her thick skin - understands that 117 votes against her is hugely significant.
She knows that the 200 votes in support of her prime ministership was boosted by her astounding concession that she will step down before the next election, such is the lack of Conservative Party love.
She also knows that the failure of the arch Brexiter group (European Research Group (ERG) to have a clear rival candidate able to pull the party together in the event of a leadership challenge has worked in her favour. As the Brexiteers were split between putting up the maverick Boris Johnson or opportunist Sajid Javid, Mrs May can console herself she was the least worst option.
But that’s not a great position to be in. There are grim precedents behind this predicament and Mrs May need look no further than the 1990 leadership challenge between Margaret Thatcher and Michael Heseltine - again, over Europe. Mrs Thatcher got 204 votes in support yet was deemed so badly damaged she resigned four days later.
Mrs May now heads to Brussels to try and extract some concessions from reluctant European leaders, but why would they bother? Mrs May is so weakened that she is unlikely to be able to table the Brexit deal and have it pass parliament.
The key number for Mrs May (who brought this mathematical nightmare upon herself when she called a snap election in 2017 only to lose a ruling majority), is 10. That is the number of DUP seats that have to be won over in any type of Brexit deal in addition to having the Tories all fall in line in order for it to secure parliamentary approval.
Her current deal is dead in the water now, with more than a third of her own party not even wanting her to lead them. The opposition to the deal is far higher than this.
Another number in her head is 108. That’s the number of days before March 29 when the UK looks increasingly likely it will leave the European Union without a deal.
The Prime Minister’s victory may end up being a pyrrhic one.
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