Brexit: seven ways to end the impasse

MPS are likely to vote on a range of Brexit options this week. What chance does each have of passing the Commons?

Theresa May has now lost control of parliament but what options will her MPs vote on? Picture: AP)

Members of parliament are likely to vote this week on a range of options to see where a consensus may lie on Brexit. What chance does each have of passing the Commons?

Revoke Article 50

This is a nuclear option but should not be ruled out. Britain can end the Brexit process unilaterally but what is less clear is whether it would be allowed to do so as a tactical move only to trigger Article 50 again later. The European Court of Justice declined to take a stance on this question in a ruling last year.

Either way it is hard to see how MPs could support revocation as it would be seen as ripping up the result of the 2016 referendum.

Chances of getting a majority in parliament: 1/5

A second referendum

Up to a million people may have marched for a so-called People’s Vote on Saturday but those behind the campaign believe they are 20-40 MPs short of a majority. Supporters of a softer Brexit could tip the scale if they change tack.

Chances: 2/5

Theresa May’s deal

In the game of Brexit whack-a-mole this has been the only animal with its head exposed. The other options have substantive problems but have not had the same scrutiny. It may take direct comparison with the alternatives for Mrs May to get her way.

Chances: 3/5

Canada-style trade deal

The problem with this option is that without the Irish backstop it is not negotiable with the EU. Many Brexiteers favour replacing the backstop with a technological solution on the Irish border but it is hard to see such a plan coming close to a majority, even with official government support.

Chances: 1/5A

Customs union

This has the best chance of succeeding as the least bad option. The UK would agree to Mrs May’s withdrawal agreement then negotiate a full customs union with the EU, protecting trade with the bloc and helping to mitigate problems on the Irish border. However, Britain would be unable to strike its own free trade deals and may not have a seat at the table in future EU deals. A customs union is Labour’s preferred policy.

Chances: 4/5

Joining the European Economic Area

EEA membership with a customs union would solve the Irish border question and keep trade with the EU much as it is today, but Britain would have to allow free movement of people. This model is backed by a cross-party group of MPs who call it Common Market 2.0. It is not backed by Labour, however.

Chances: 3/5

No-deal Brexit

Votes in the Commons have already shown that there is no majority for leaving without a deal. No-deal is what happens if parliament cannot agree on an alternative.

Chances: 0/5

The Times