Brexit: every chaotic day brings a second referendum closer

Reaching an agreement on the terms of Britain’s departure from the EU has actually made it less certain that it will leave at all.

Nobody can predict quite how the next few weeks will unfold but it is looking increasingly likely that the Prime Minister’s deal will be rejected by MPs.

There are so many paradoxes in our politics. Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union should have been a triumph for the prime minister but it has quickly turned into a disaster. The Conservative leader’s moment of greatest strength has become a crisis of vulnerability, with Tory MPs openly plotting to topple her. And the greatest irony of all is that reaching an agreement on the terms of our departure from the EU has actually made it less certain that we will leave. A Remainer prime minister who has negotiated a Brexit she never wanted could be thwarted by the Conservative Eurosceptics who have campaigned for it all their lives.

Until now ambiguity has kept Westminster in suspended animation, but the clarity of the 585-page withdrawal agreement means there is something for everyone to hate — Schrodinger’s box has been opened so the cat inside it can no longer be both dead and alive. More than two years after the EU referendum, this is the moment of truth for Brexit. The fantasies promised by the Leave campaign have run up against the harsh realities of a painful negotiation. The grey areas that allowed all the factions to think they were getting what they wanted have been turned into black and white.

Nobody can predict quite how the next few weeks will unfold but it is looking increasingly likely that the prime minister’s deal will be rejected by MPs. The leadership plots are a distraction — even if a no-confidence motion is triggered Mrs May would probably win it. What matters is the “meaningful vote”, expected next month, and with the DUP, Labour, the hard Brexiteers and some pro-European Conservatives united in opposition to the draft withdrawal agreement it is hard to see how it will get through the Commons. The strength of feeling was clear last week as the prime minister endured almost an hour of attacks from MPs before receiving a single supportive question. Indeed there could yet be more ministerial resignations once the Infamous Five Brexiteers, who decided to stay in the cabinet in order to try to renegotiate a deal, find themselves rebuffed by Brussels.

Mrs May says that the choice is between her deal, no-deal and no Brexit, in the hope that she will convince both Brexiteers and Remainers to support her plan for fear of something worse. The calculation in No 10 is that if MPs vote against Mrs May’s deal the markets will crash, the pound will follow and then naughty backbenchers will be terrified into changing their minds — an extraordinary attitude for the supposed party of business to take. But it is far from clear that this “kamikaze strategy” will work. There is too much at stake for politicians on both sides of the Brexit divide who see this as a choice between party and country.

What’s interesting is where the balance of power would lie in the event of parliamentary deadlock. If the government is defeated in the meaningful vote there are four options. The prime minister could go back to Brussels and try to negotiate a different deal but it’s hard to see how this would work. The EU has made clear it is not willing to reopen discussions and in any case MPs are divided about whether they want closer ties with Brussels or a cleaner break, so all the parliamentary problems would remain.

Pro and anti Brexit protesters hold placards near Parliament in London.

There could also be a general election, Labour’s preferred option, but under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act two thirds of MPs would have to vote for a new poll. After last year’s disaster the Conservatives are unlikely to want to go to the electorate again. An election would also resolve none of the Brexit dilemmas while other policies would be ignored in a campaign that would inevitably become all about Europe.

The choice, if the deal is rejected, is likely to come down to a no-deal Brexit or a second referendum. Although the Brexiteers suggest that we will simply leave on March 29 and trade with the EU under WTO rules, in fact a no-deal Brexit would still have to be approved by parliament. The government is required to table a motion setting out its plans in the event that it loses the meaningful vote and John Bercow, the Commons Speaker, has made clear to MPs that he would ensure they had the chance to express a view either as an amendment or through an opposition day or backbench debate.

According to the Institute for Government think tank, there would also need to be legislation covering more than 50 aspects of national life to prepare for the consequences of a no-deal Brexit. This would offer MPs more chances to give their opinion about the peril of crashing out of the EU without a proper deal. I’ve spoken to pro-European ministers who are so worried about the economic consequences of a no-deal Brexit that if the country was heading for such a scenario they would resign and support a People’s Vote. “We have made compromises to hold the government together but the hard Brexiteers can only push us so far before we go to war,” says one. “If they get us to no-deal then all bets are off.”

Amber Rudd, the new work and pensions secretary, has said publicly that she would favour a new referendum that could stop Brexit over crashing out. Alistair Burt, the pro-European Foreign Office minister, issued a warning on Twitter at the weekend. “Be very clear,” he wrote. “If an agreed deal on leaving between the Govt and the EU is voted down by purist Brexiteers, do not be surprised if consensus on accepting the result of the Referendum by Remain voting MPs breaks down. Parliament will not support no deal.” Nicky Morgan, the former education secretary, also wrote on the Conservative Home website that “no Brexit” was a “very real danger” if the draft agreement was rejected by parliament.

Jeremy Corbyn is desperate to avoid endorsing another referendum but if he were faced by a choice between that and a no-deal Brexit, with all the potential the latter would have for economic harm to Labour constituencies, shadow cabinet ministers have little doubt that he would end up backing a People’s Vote. It would be hard for the government to ignore MPs on a policy that is supposed to be about restoring parliamentary sovereignty and letting the people take back control.

The Labour leader said earlier this month that “we can’t stop” Brexit. He’s wrong — voters, not politicians, can decide if they want to stop it now they know exactly what it means.

THE TIMES