Shinzo Abe out to put new spin on relations with China

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to China this week will be closely watched by Australia.

A mass square dance in Jiangyin city at the weekend. Picture: AFP

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to China this week will be closely watched by Australia.

The first visit to China by a Japanese prime minister in seven years will be a test of Japan-China relations on issues such as the East and South China seas while boosting ties between two countries concerned at the rise of protectionism under Donald Trump.

Also closely watched will be Abe’s approach to President Xi Jingping’s signature Belt and Road infrastructure initiative that could influence Australia’s.

Abe has moved to improve ties with China over the past year, but his moves to revive the quadrilateral security dialogue, an informal relationship with Australia, the US and India, on security issues in the region, has angered China.

Dubbed the “Quad”, the relationship was an initiative of Abe and other leaders during his first stint as prime minister in 2007. Australia withdrew following the election of Kevin Rudd but the ­dialogue was revived in 2017 with the strong support of Abe and Malcolm Turnbull.

The move is widely seen in Beijing as an understanding to join forces to constrain China’s growing influence in the region.

An exercise by a Japanese submarine in the South China Sea prompted an angry attack from Beijing, as did the communique by defence and foreign ministers from Australia and Japan in Sydney two weeks ago that outlined plans to work more closely together in the region.

This week’s visit, which follows one by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to Tokyo in May and meetings between Abe and Xi in Russia in September was originally due to start tomorrow. But sensitivities dating back to the 1894-95 Sino-Japanese War, where Japan seized Chinese territory in its northeast, and the bitterness of World War II — never from the surface — delayed the visit by two days.

Abe will tomorrow deliver a speech to mark the 150th anniversary of the Meiji Restoration, which is seen in Beijing as paving the way for a more aggressive Japan and its attacks on China.

Shinzo Abe in Brussels on Friday. Picture: AFP

Concerned about what message Abe might deliver, Beijing did not want him flying directly from Tokyo to China afterwards and rescheduled the visit to begin on Thursday.

In an interview with the Hong Kong-based Phoenix television, last week, Abe said he would be discussing trade and North Korea during his visit. Japan and China are concerned at the rise of protectionism in the US under Trump.

“Japan believes that restrictive actions are no good to any country,” Abe said.

He said Japan was a strong supporter of trade disputes being ­handled under the rules of the World Trade Organisation, which is in line with China’s position, but Abe said Tokyo expected Beijing to take a more rigorous approach to protecting intellectual property.

Abe said he would also be discussing the BRI, saying he hoped it would “reflect the thinking of the international community” in terms of the need for transparency of the financing arrangements and for its projects to be aimed at “ensuring the sustainable development” of the countries involved.

Japan and Australia have not signed up to the BRI, but Abe’s visit could lead to an understanding between Tokyo and Beijing on how to approach the projects that provide a roadmap for Australia’s future approach. Mr Abe said Japan was “willing to provide ­assistance to the initiative”.

“There is a big Trump factor,” Richard McGregor, a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute, told The Australian. “China is looking for friends as it faces a potentially knock-down battle with Trump.

“At the same time ,Japan, while relying on the US alliance, also needs make sure it cultivates its ­regional relations because of the uncertainty in the US.”

McGregor said Abe was visiting China in a much better position that he would have a few years ago, given an improving Japanese economy and his more proactive role in global politics. “The Chinese have been warning Japan off the South China Sea for years and complaining about Tokyo having anything to say on regional security issues, but Abe has stuck to his guns and is coming back to Beijing in a much better position than about five to 10 years ago,” he said.

“China is looking for friends right now because of the big and protracted fight they are going to have with the US.”

McGregor said it would be important to watch how Abe handled the discussion on the BRI.

“Japan has agreed it will do bilateral business deals, but they are refusing to sign on to the formal Belt and Road initiative.

“That is a good model for Australia. We don’t have to sign on to the concept but we can get ­involved in it anyway.”