Has Beijing put the soft word on Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte?

The extent of Chinese influence in The Philippines election has become an issue in the past two weeks.

One of the victims of Rodrigo ­Duterte’s war on suspected drug dealers is carted away in Manila yesterday.

Back in March, when Rodrigo ­Duterte was just a southern ­Philippines mayor with presidential ambitions and no party ­machinery behind him, he boasted that his ­biggest supporters were from the Chinese community and funding for his pre-campaign ­advertising came from “an anonymous ­Chinese donor”.

Little was made of Mr ­Duterte’s anonymous Chinese backer at the time. He would not have been the only candidate to benefit from funds donated by a foreign interest with a dog in the presidential fight.

But the extent of possible ­Chinese influence in The Philippines’ election has become an issue of greater interest in light of increasingly anti-American comments from the country’s combative new President.

In the past fortnight, Mr ­Duterte has called US President Barack Obama “a son of a whore”, ordered US troops out of Mindanao, told Philippines naval patrols to ­remain within 12 nautical miles of shore in the South China Sea and instructed his defence secretary to look to Russia and China for military hardware deals rather than its ­traditional supplier, the US.

The Philippines is a vital interest to the US, which months ­before the May elections cemented an Enhanced Defence Co-operation Agreement with then president Benigno Aquino granting US forces and contractors ­access to “agreed areas”.

The deal was a triumph for Washington, allowing it to station more troops, ships and planes more frequently in The Philippines as part of its Asia-Pacific pivot.

The outcome of The Philippines’ elections was also critical to Beijing. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague was set to rule on the dispute between Man­ila and Beijing over the South China Sea. As expected, its July ruling went overwhelmingly in Manila’s favour.

The US-Philippines defence agreement, combined with an agreement to conduct joint ­patrols of the South China Sea, was an enormous fillip in the US strategy to curb Chinese ­expansionism.

“There was an awful lot of speculation around the time of the election that Chinese money was coming in and was going to be a factor,” said Euan Graham, director of the Lowy Institute’s Inter­national Security Program.

If the Chinese were going to back a strategic candidate it would most likely have been then vice-president Jejomar Binay, who had already indicated he would take a more moderate line on Beijing than Mr Aquino.

But, adds Dr Graham; “It would make sense for China to keep as many levers in the election as possible.”

Philippines political analyst Richard Javad Heydarian confirms the rumour mill over ­Chinese election money was in overdrive during the campaign, though there has never been anything more than speculation about who might have received what money, and from where.

“Amid the scandals in Australia, the possibility Chinese money was involved in elections around the region cannot be discounted,” he said cautiously.

Mr Duterte’s hostility to the US — which this year will contribute $US120 million to Manila’s ­defence budget — is all the more stark when ­contrasted with his conciliatory approach to Beijing, although Mr Heydarian suggests that could change.

“Duterte is clearly going the extra mile to open communications channels with China by ­signalling a very positive message, but if within a few months the ­Chinese don’t give any meaningful concessions, he will be forced to adopt a much more robust ­position,’’ he says.

China has a “reputational problem” with Filipinos, thanks to its aggression in Philippines territorial waters and a history of ill-fated investments mired in corruption and political scandal.

Following the devastating 2013 Typhoon Haiyan, China, the world’s second largest economy, pledged less than $US2 million in aid, far less than the US, Japan, Australia or even Swedish furniture giant IKEA.

Beijing’s parsimony was said to have been driven by anger over Manila’s insistence on seeking an international ruling on the South China Sea dispute, but it was an error in strategic thinking given its ongoing battle with Washington for regional ­influence.

In the race for “soft power” in The Philippines, China is completely outgunned by the US and Japan, whose efforts are reflected in buoyant approval ratings, compared with China’s net trust rating of minus 24 per cent. Chinese investment in The Philippines is 0.01 per cent of all foreign direct investment — compared with 13 per cent from the US.