Brexit: where does Theresa May go next with her deal?
MPs will vote on a no-deal Brexit tomorrow, but the EU may make things even more difficult in coming weeks.
So what happens now, after Theresa May’s second defeat of her withdrawal bill, with the Brexit deadline just two and a half weeks away? Will Mrs May, known for her obstinacy, delay once again and try to put the deal to a vote for a third time?
Amid the ongoing chaos, parliamentarians across both parties are poised to wrest control of Brexit and put forward a series of indicative votes to try and find a majority for any of the available options, including a second referendum, and a much softer Brexit. They could also aggressively pursue the possibility of enforcing legislative powers, which could then force Mrs May to call a general election.
More immediately, Mrs May will give MPs two key votes in the following days.
Leave with no-deal
Tomorrow the PM will allow a free vote in parliament as to whether the country will leave the European Union without a deal on March 29 — Britain’s default option.
If MPs vote for a no-deal Brexit the UK will leave Europe on March 29 without any kind of deal, which means it would automatically revert to World Trade Organisation rules of trade.
Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson said last night this was “the only safe route out of the abyss and the only safe path to self-respect.”
Extension of Article 50
If the no-deal vote is rejected, MPs will then get a vote to request an extension to Article 50, the mechanism by which Britain leaves Europe.
If MPs support this motion, Mrs May will formally ask EU leaders for the Article 50 process to be extended.
But she warned voting for extension does not solve the problems faced by the country and that the EU would want to know the reasons for the extension.
Europe has already made it clear that any extension would be a short one, and would have to come to an end before May 23, the date of the European elections.
Crucially EU leaders may not be persuaded to agree to a lengthy extension if there is no obvious way for the British parliament to pass any kind of Brexit legislation.
The EU has to get the agreement of all 27 member states in order to grant an extension and the European community has made it clear that the UK has to have a “substantial plan’’ if they want an extension longer than a very short period of around a month to six weeks.
EU leaders are scheduled to meet next week and a unified response to a UK request for an extension could be put on the agenda.
Short extension to Article 50
Some Tories, with the DUP, have tabled an amendment to get an extension until May 22 - the last date before the European Parliament elections - in order to push the Malthouse agreement, which seeks to have a lengthy transition period before leaving without a deal.
Theresa May resigns
Tory MPs are suggesting again that Mrs May’s premiership may be nearing its end.
Despite there being no moves, yet, against Mrs May’s leadership, Tory Brexiteer Bernard Jenkyn said today Mrs May’s authority was severely impaired.
”This is time limited administration now,’’ he said.
Tory MP Charles Walker told the BBC before the vote that if it failed “there will have to be a general election”.
As Mrs May voiced her frustration at developments in parliament today, there was raw anger on both Tory and Labour benches at her failure to acknowledge the death of her deal.
She is only serving as prime minister because the Conservatives can’t afford either the time or even more disruption by seeking a new leader.
Regardless, the party cannot legally make a move on the PM because she has immunity until the end of the year following a recent failed vote of no confidence.
But in reality by allowing a free vote on whether there is a no deal or not, Mrs May has acknowledged her inability to whip the party behind her. Her cabinet is split, as is the rest of the Tory party.
While Labour is also split, Jeremy Corbyn could table a motion of no confidence in the government and this time there may be enough rebel Tory MPs to get the motion through. In the event enough MPs said they had no confidence in the government, Mrs May would be forced to stand down.
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