Brexit explainer: How Britain got itself in a bind
Britain’s two-day-old draft deal to leave the EU is in danger of collapsing and Theresa May faces the possibility of a leadership challenge. How did it get to this?
Britain’s two-day-old draft deal to leave the European Union is in danger of collapsing, increasing the likelihood of a disorderly, economically painful exit from the bloc next year.
British politicians in favour of leaving the EU have criticised the agreement reached Tuesday after more than a year and a half of negotiations. They say it keeps the country bound to the EU under unfavourable terms and floated the idea of unseating Prime Minister Theresa May.
Even if May remains in her post, the British parliament might reject the deal. Britain’s formal exit is set for March 29, so that would leave little time to seek an alternative.
Here’s a look at how Britain got into this situation:
REFERENDUM
May’s party, the British Conservative Party, has long been split between those in favour of EU membership and those who want out.
One advantage of membership is it gives seamless access to trade across 27 other countries. The EU is Britain’s biggest trading partner.
Opponents have argued the EU took too much political power from London; many want to restrict immigration from other EU member countries as well. To settle the question, former Prime Minister David Cameron called for a nationwide vote on whether Britain should stay or go. On June 23, 2016, 52 per cent of voters said they wanted to leave.
NEGOTIATIONS
The unexpected outcome threw the country into chaos, with Cameron resigning and the value of the pound tumbling 15 per cent in a day. May eventually took over as prime minister. In March 2017, she submitted the formal notice of Britain’s intent to withdraw from the EU. The action started a two-year countdown and negotiations on the terms of the exit and for future EU-UK relations. The difficulty of the negotiations quickly became clear. The EU took a tough approach. It insisted Britain would no longer enjoy any of the bloc’s “four freedoms": the freedom for citizens, money, goods and services to travel and operate across borders without hindrance.
In a bid to solidify her power and the stated goal of ensuring a “strong and stable” government would be seated at the Brexit negotiations, May called a general election for June 2017. The move backfired, and her Conservatives lost their majority in parliament. She had to create a minority government with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland.
IRISH QUESTION
The talks on a Brexit deal remained stalled for months, largely over the problem of the future border between Britain’s Northern Ireland and the EU’s Republic of Ireland. The fear was that reinstalling a hard border with import duties and travel restrictions would renew sectarian violence.
The EU insisted that Britain should not be allowed to enjoy the fruits of staying in its seamless trading union. So it proposed allowing Northern Ireland to remain in the customs union, but not the rest of Britain. May’s government rejected that, saying it threatened to break up Britain.
THE DEAL
With the clock ticking, British and EU officials intensified their efforts and reached a draft deal on November 13.
The agreement envisions Britain leaving the EU as planned on March 29 but remaining inside the bloc’s single market and bound by its rules until the end of December 2020. That would buy time to work out a permanent post-Brexit trading relationship.
Other terms call for Britain paying £39 billion to settle outstanding obligations to the EU. British and citizens of EU countries would be allowed to remain where they currently live and work.
The deal also commits the two sides to a “backstop” solution that keeps the U.K. in a customs arrangement with the EU as a guarantee the Irish border remains free of customs posts. The backstop would last until superseded by new trade arrangements, which both sides say they hope to have in place by the end of 2020.
POLITICAL BACKLASH
Many pro-Brexit politicians immediately slammed the deal. They said it would leave Britain a vassal state by making it observe EU customs rules that it will no longer have a say in shaping. Some pro-EU politicians favoured calling another vote on whether Britain should leave the EU at all.
May has defended the deal as providing the continuity businesses need while the country and the EU agree on a long-term trade relationship.
Two Cabinet ministers and five junior government members resigned Thursday and a leading pro-Brexit politician called for a no-confidence vote on May.
NO-DEAL RISKS
If parliament rejects the draft deal, the more likely it is that Brexit happens without any agreement spelling out future relations with the EU. Businesses and most economists view that as a worst-case scenario for the British economy. It would mean a return of tariffs on trade between Britain and the EU as well as border checks on goods. That could delay shipments of everything from food and fuel to clothing and cars. Some companies have been stockpiling to prepare for such a possibility.
And Britain would drop out of Europe-wide protocols that govern areas such as aviation and prescription drugs, threatening to ground flights and disrupt supplies of drugs.
MAY UNDER SIEGE
May faces a possible vote of no confidence that could lead to her own dismissal in the coming days after she suffered the loss of eight key people — two from her inner Cabinet, including the Brexit secretary Dominic Raab overnight.
Who might replace her?
* BORIS JOHNSON, 54
The former foreign minister is May’s most outspoken critic over Brexit. He resigned from the cabinet in July in protest at her handling of the exit negotiations. Johnson, regarded by many Eurosceptics as the face of the 2016 Brexit campaign, set out his pitch to the membership in a bombastic speech at the party’s annual conference in October.
* JEREMY HUNT, 52
Hunt replaced Johnson as foreign minister in July and has urged the Conservative membership to set aside their differences over Brexit and unite against a common foe: the EU. Hunt voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum.
* JACOB REES-MOGG, 49
A flamboyant millionaire who cultivates the image of an English gentleman from days gone by, Rees-Mogg has developed a cult following among those who want a more radical departure from the EU than May is proposing. Rees-Mogg, the head of an influential eurosceptic group of MPs, announced he had submitted a letter of no confidence in the prime minister the day after she unveiled her draft Brexit deal.
But asked immediately after saying he had submitted his letter to depose May, Rees-Mogg said he would not be putting himself forward for the job.
* DOMINIC RAAB, 44
Britain’s Brexit negotiator quit May’s government on Thursday in protest at her draft exit agreement, saying it did not match the promises the Conservative Party made at a 2017 election. Raab served only five months as head of the Brexit department, having been appointed in July.
* SAJID JAVID, 48
Javid, a former banker and champion of free markets, has served a number of cabinet roles and scores consistently well in polls of party members. A second- generation immigrant of Pakistani heritage, Javid voted “remain” in the 2016 Brexit vote but was previously considered to be eurosceptic.
* MICHAEL GOVE, 51
Gove, one of the highest-profile Brexit campaigners during the referendum, has had to rebuild his cabinet career after falling early to May in the contest to replace David Cameron, who resigned the day after losing the 2016 Brexit referendum. High-energy, and seen as one of the most effective members of cabinet in bringing forward new policies, Gove has become a surprise ally to May and so far backed her Brexit strategy.
* DAVID DAVIS, 69
Davis, a leading eurosceptic, was appointed to lead Britain’s negotiations with the EU in July 2016, but he resigned two years later in protest at her plans for a long-term relationship with the bloc. He has been touted as a possible interim leader.
* PENNY MORDAUNT, 45
Mordaunt is one of the last remaining pro-Brexit members of May’s cabinet, where she serves as international development minister. Many had expected her to join the wave of resignations that followed the publication of May’s draft withdrawal deal.
* ANDREA LEADSOM, 55
Leadsom, another pro-Brexit campaigner who still serves in May’s cabinet, made it to the last two in the 2016 contest to replace Cameron. But, rather than force a run-off vote against Theresa May, she withdrew from the contest.
AP, Reuters
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