Victorian Labor posts solid election year lead over Guy
The Andrews government has an election-winning lead despite law and order woes, says Newspoll.
The Victorian Labor government holds an election-winning lead over the Coalition on the back of Premier Daniel Andrews’ sharply higher personal satisfaction ratings, but two-thirds of voters believe the ALP must do more to fight street gangs and violent crime.
The Andrews government leads the Coalition 52 to 48 per cent on two-party-preferred terms, which mirrors the 2014 election result and would comfortably return Labor to office, according to a Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian.
Labor leads despite the first-term government battling a series of crises and a backlash over law and order that is dominating public debate.
In an election year being dominated by crime and cost-of-living issues, Labor’s primary vote sits at 37 per cent, dropping three percentage points since the previous Newspoll in November 2016, but a drop of just 1.1 percentage points from the vote recorded at the 2014 election.
The result of the poll, taken since the beginning of February, will alarm Coalition MPs who have become increasingly optimistic they can win the eight additional seats required to form a majority government at the November 24 election.
The Coalition’s primary vote under Liberal leader Matthew Guy has slipped to 39 per cent, which represents a three-point drop from the 42 per cent recorded at the previous Newspoll and the last election.
Both major parties’ lost support appears to have swung to One Nation, which recorded a primary vote of 6 per cent. This was the first time One Nation was surveyed in a Victorian Newspoll, separate from other minor parties, whose own support still rose by one point.
Mr Andrews’ satisfaction rating has surged six points to 46 per cent, while Mr Guy’s rose just two points to 36 per cent.
On the question of who would make the better premier, 41 per cent backed Mr Andrews, a seven-point drop in support since May 2015, and a one-point drop since the previous poll. Support for Mr Guy stood at 30 per cent, a six-point increase since May 2015, and a one-point decrease since the previous poll.
On the question of whether the Andrews government was doing enough to combat gang violence, 65 per cent said it should be doing more, a position taken by 53 per cent of Labor supporters.
On the question of which party was better placed to manage law and order, respondents favoured the Liberals, with 42 per cent backing the opposition and 37 per cent choosing Labor. The remaining 21 per cent was uncommitted.
Pollster David Briggs said the core message from the poll was that voters were not ready to throw out the Andrews administration.
Mr Briggs said that while it could be difficult for opposition leaders to punch through the noise of government, Mr Guy was not capitalising on Labor’s problems, even as the poll showed broad concerns about law and order.
“He’s not making any sort of an impression,’’ Mr Briggs said.
On the One Nation vote, Mr Briggs said the 6 per cent primary vote support would generally be made up of both Coalition and Labor voters.
The Pauline Hanson-led party has registered to contest the election.
In order for the 6 per cent result to be replicated in an election, One Nation would have to field candidates in every seat, which seems unlikely. One Nation tends to poll poorly in Victoria.
Mr Briggs said that it could not be assumed that support for One Nation in the survey would be entirely disaffected Coalition voters because there had traditionally been strong support among blue-collar Labor voters in other states.
“The One Nation vote comes off both the Coalition side of politics and Labor,’’ he said.
The Greens primary vote in the Newspoll was 11 per cent.
The poll was based on 1268 interviews and comes as both major parties advance their election strategies.
Labor is targeting cost-conscious voters struggling to cover household energy and gas bills, while the Coalition is wooing voters in outer-urban swing seats with a tough-on-crime agenda and promises of new, timesaving road infrastructure.
Both parties have their own struggles to cast off, with the Andrews government keen to put a festering fire services dispute and allegations of pandering to the United Firefighters Union to bed.
The Coalition faces the uphill battle to help Mr Guy cast off a “Lobster Mobster” tag, which Labor has invented to capitalise on revelations the Liberal leader once attended a lobster dinner with an alleged underworld figure.
Both parties will fight it out for four bayside or “sandbelt” lower house seats that Labor took from the Liberals in the 2014 election, including Bentleigh, Mordialloc, Carrum and Frankston, which stretch along Melbourne’s southeastern waterfront and inland suburbs. Other key seats in play for the Liberals include Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South and Cranbourne on the city’s southeastern fringe, as well regional seats including Ripon, Bass and Morwell which Labor is eyeing off.
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