Sharkie in box seat for big win against Downer

Liberal candidate Georgina Downer is headed for an emphatic defeat in South Australia’s Mayo, a new poll says.

Labor’s Bill Shorten, Susan Lamb and Michelle Rowland.

The Queensland seat of Longman sits on a knife-edge, while Liberal candidate Georgina Downer is headed for an emphatic defeat in South Australia’s Mayo, according to a ReachTEL poll commissioned by progressive think tank the Australia Institute.

The poll, ahead of the Super Saturday by-elections on July 28, found support for Labor and the LNP tied at 50-50 two-party-preferred in Longman, while Centre Alliance candidate Rebekha Sharkie led Ms Downer 62-38 in Mayo.

ReachTEL surveyed 736 respondents in Mayo and 727 in Longman on Thursday night, asking them how they would vote if the by-elections were held now.

In Longman, north of Brisbane, 39.1 per cent of voters said they would give Labor’s Susan Lamb their first preference, while 34.9 per cent said they would vote for the LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg.

One Nation received 14.7 per cent of first preferences, while 4.4 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Greens, 3.7 per cent would vote for other candidates and 3.2 per cent were undecided.

In the Adelaide Hills and Fleurieu Peninsula seat of Mayo, 43.5 per cent of respondents said they would give Ms Sharkie their first preference, while 32.7 per cent said they would favour Ms Downer.

Labor trailed the Greens on first preferences, 8.2 per cent to 9 per cent, while 4.1 per cent of voters said they would vote for other candidates and 2.6 per cent were undecided.

Female voters overwhelmingly favoured Ms Sharkie, 48.8 per cent to 29.9 per cent, while the gap was narrower with male voters with 38.1 per cent giving Ms Sharkie their first preference compared with 35.6 per cent for Ms Downer.

Ms Sharkie was most popular in the 51-65 age bracket, leading Ms Downer 52.3 per cent to 28.3 per cent on first preferences.

The Australian’s analysis of spending in the Tasmanian seat of Braddon shows Labor has pledged to spend more than three times as much taxpayers’ money as the ­Coalition. A Sky News ReachTEL poll earlier this month found Liberal candidate Brett Whiteley leading Labor incumbent Justine Keay 54-46.

Labor’s spending promises so far total $98.5 million, compared with $32.9m for the Coalition.

Labor has matched the Coalition’s $30m Cradle Mountain commitment and pledged $60m to upgrade the Bass Highway.