Rudd gains softer in marginals

KEVIN Rudd has gained ground in key marginal seats in his home state of Queensland, putting Labor in the frame to improve its position at the next election despite voter concern about the government's handling of asylum-seekers, emissions trading and telecommunications.

KEVIN Rudd has gained ground in key marginal seats in his home state of Queensland, putting Labor in the frame to improve its position at the next election despite voter concern about the government's handling of asylum-seekers, emissions trading and telecommunications.

But the exclusive Newspoll for The Weekend Australian sounds a warning to the Prime Minister that the ALP is not tracking as well in the crucial electoral battleground of Queensland as it is nationally.

The ALP will take careful note of the finding that support in the Queensland marginals -- crucial to the outcome of the next election -- is far softer than what it is nationally. Support in the six Queensland seats for the ALP has lifted 2.9 per cent since Mr Rudd was elected two years ago, against 6.2 per cent Australia-wide.

While he continues to comprehensively outpoint Malcolm Turnbull, setting up the ALP to win up to four additional seats in Queensland, Mr Rudd will be worried by the drift in support for the government's management of issues that could be decisive when he goes to the polls next year.

The Newspoll, conducted this week, as Mr Rudd grappled with the standoff with asylum-seekers aboard the Customs ship Oceanic Viking off Indonesia and the likelihood of further interest rate rises, shows that Labor heads the Coalition in the six Queensland marginals surveyed by 54 to 46 per cent, an improvement on its position at the last election in 2007. A total of 1847 voters were surveyed in the Brisbane-based Liberal seats of Bowman and Dickson, Labor-held Longman to the north of the capital, Flynn and Dawson in central Queensland, also with the ALP, and the Liberal electorate of Herbert, centred on Townsville.

Satisfaction with Mr Rudd's performance as Prime Minister ranged between 46 per cent in Flynn and 61 per cent in Herbert, and averaged at 54 per cent.

Mr Turnbull's best results were in Bowman, in Brisbane's east, and Herbert, where he scored 38 per cent approval; his worst was 27 per cent in Longman, lost to Labor at the last election by former Howard government minister Mal Brough. Satisfaction with the Opposition Leader averaged out at 34 per cent, the latest Newspoll found.

As with polling nationally, Mr Rudd was preferred as better prime minister by an overwhelming 63 per cent to 22 per cent for Mr Turnbull.

Yet more voters in the six Queensland marginals believed the government was doing a relatively poor job of managing asylum-seekers, the proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme and the sleeper issue of its relationship with Telstra.

On the question of Canberra's dealings with the partially publicly owned telco, 43 per cent of those surveyed by Newspoll believed the government was doing a bad job, against 26 per cent who approved of the relationship.

This has big implications for the government, given that the latest Telstra annual report shows there are 1.3 million small shareholders in the company with holdings worth less than $33,000.

Only 27 per cent of voters in the Queensland marginals approved of the government's handling of the asylum-seekers issue, while a majority -- 56 per cent -- insisted it was too soft on boatpeople.

Local factors such as anger at the state Labor government of Anna Bligh in Queensland appear to be acting as a brake on the ALP's federal vote.

But a majority of voters -- 61 per cent -- endorsed Labor's handling of interest rates.

Labor sources have told The Weekend Australian the government hopes for significant electoral gains in Western Australia and Queensland to offset likely losses in NSW, where the state government headed by Nathan Rees is on the nose.

The redistribution of electoral boundaries in Queensland has already notionally placed the marginal coalition seats of Herbert and Dickson in the Labor column and made Liberal-held Bowman line ball.

Today's Newspoll puts the Coalition electorates of Ryan, Hinkler, Fairfax and Fisher in striking range of Labor. But just as September's cumulative Newspoll showed Labor support lagging in Queensland, today's result will disappoint the party strategists.

Labor's primary result across the Queensland marginals averages just 44 per cent and as low as 41 per cent in Peter Dutton's seat of Dickson and the coal electorate of Flynn, well below the national primary vote recorded in most recent Newspolls.

Newspoll chief executive Martin O'Shannessy said last night the findings suggested Mr Rudd's extraordinary honeymoon with the electorate was coming to an end.

Additional reporting: Christian Kerr