Emissions target cuts `cannot be met'

KEVIN Rudd's goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 5 per cent by 2020 has been shown to have little prospect of success.

KEVIN Rudd's goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 5 per cent by 2020 has little prospect of success, an analysis of Treasury modelling shows.

An academic study to be published later this week shows that Treasury predicts Australia's emissions to increase from 553 million tonnes in 2000 to 774 million tonnes by 2020.

For the government to achieve its minimum 5 per cent reduction target based on 2000 levels, emissions would need to be no more than 523 million tonnes by 2020.

The authors of the paper, Bob Birrell and Ernest Healy from Monash University, describe this as "not plausible" given: population growth projections; a refusal to consider nuclear power; and the many "loopholes providing free permits to coal-based electricity generators as well as to other big polluters, including the agricultural sector" contained in the government's emissions trading scheme legislation, which will again go before the parliament when it resumes next month.

"The Australian Labor government is in a diabolically difficult policy situation," the authors conclude. "There is little prospect of Australia achieving even the CPRS-5 (per cent) objective."

The paper, published in the journal People and Place, argues that the major reason the government will not be able to achieve the target is the projected increase in the population from 19.2 million in 2000 to 25.2 million in 2020. The authors show population growth will be responsible for 184 million of the 221 million tonne predicted increase by 2020, or 83 per cent.

The Prime Minister has given strong support for a "big Australia" policy, which encourages high immigration and high fertility rates to boost the population. The academic study suggests that if the government wants to achieve its 5 per cent emissions reduction target, it may need to rethink "big Australia".

Dr Birrell told The Australian yesterday: "These two goals just aren't compatible. This research shows the extent of the incompatibility."

The alternative would be to remove existing concessions to businesses in the emissions trading scheme or simply to set a cap that would make the price of carbon prohibitively expensive. The impact this would have on the economy could be devastating.

The government is required to state its guaranteed emissions targets for 2020 by the end of this month, according to the terms of the Copenhagen Accord.

Senior Treasury sources say they not only agree with the way the paper's authors have used Treasury modelling to come to their findings, but they also doubt the targets set are achievable given the GDP growth likely to occur between now and 2020.

In the year 2000, GDP was $885 billion; by 2020, with the combination of economic growth and population increases, GDP is projected to be $1.571 trillion.

The academics ended their paper by stating: "We hope this article will . . . remove the excuse of ignorance" when considering the dual policy aims of lower emissions and population growth.