Newspoll: Coalition closes the gap in Victorian election year
EXCLUSIVE | The scene is set for a knife-edge Victorian poll as Daniel Andrews comes under pressure from Matthew Guy.
The Victorian Coalition has strengthened its position, closing the Andrews government’s lead and setting the scene for a knife-edge November poll, despite voters remaining unconvinced by leader Matthew Guy.
The Coalition has gained traction on law-and-order and energy issues, helping the Coalition narrow Labor’s lead to 51 to 49 on two-party-preferred terms.
In a Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian over four days from last Friday, Labor’s lead over the Coalition has slumped to its tightest margin since the 2014 election, following a string of scandals.
The Liberals’ primary vote has increased two percentage points from 39 to 41 per cent since the February-March poll, while Labor’s has inched higher, from 37 to 38 per cent, as both parties benefited from a drift away from minor parties.
Mr Guy’s rating as better premier rose four percentage points from 30 to 34 per cent, while Premier Daniel Andrews’ rating remained unchanged on 41 per cent. However, after a month of bruising politics and scandals questioning the personal integrity of both leaders, voters were unhappy with their performances. Mr Andrews’ satisfaction ratings fell three percentage points from 46 per cent to 43 per cent, while dissatisfaction jumped six points to 47 per cent.
Mr Guy fared worse on these measures with his satisfaction rating falling four percentage points from 36 to 32 and dissatisfaction climbing eight points from 37 to 45 per cent.
The Liberals will take encouragement from voter support for their ability to manage Victoria’s energy supply, power prices and law and order. The Liberals made ground on Labor on the question of which party was better placed to maintain the state’s energy supply and to keep prices low, with support increasing six percentage points to 40 per cent, while Labor dropped two points to 42 per cent.
This will come as a disappointment to Labor, which is preparing for an election to be fought on cost-of-living issues and its commitment to make energy more reliable and affordable.
The polling also showed the Liberals have won over more voters with their tough-on-crime policy. When asked which of the two parties would be best at managing law and order, 46 per cent of voters favoured the Liberals, a rise of four percentage points. Labor remained flat on 37 per cent.
On the issue of gang violence, 69 per cent of voters believed the Andrews government should be doing more to tackle the issue, an increase of four percentage points since the previous poll. The percentage of voters who believed the government was doing enough to tackle gang violence fell two points to 23 per cent.
Analysts say the Coalition is officially in contention for the November election with voters shifting from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and other minor parties. “It’s closing in,” pollster Campbell White said. “We’re actually getting into a situation where it’s going to be a very close election if it keeps going this way.”
The poll results will alarm Victorian Labor, whose campaign committee meets tonight to discuss election strategy. The responses on law and order, energy and gang violence indicate voters are seeing increasing merit in the Coalition’s platform. The Coalition will be alarmed that, despite gains in its two-party and primary votes, and a string of scandals gripping Labor, Mr Guy is battling worsening dissatisfaction ratings.
Mr White said the most prominent trend in the latest poll was that both leaders had perception problems. “Clearly there is some negative stuff out there about the Premier, but Matthew Guy isn’t doing too well either,” he said.
Labor had a nightmare start to the year, first battling an outbreak of street gang violence, and then accusations of corruption after the Victorian Ombudsman found Labor had rorted MP staff allowances to pay for campaigners ahead of the 2014 election.
Mr White noted that while Mr Andrews’ personal satisfaction and dissatisfaction ratings had taken a beating since the last poll in March, the decline in support had not translated into a boon for Mr Guy.
He said it was possible Mr Guy was still dealing with the fallout of a controversial decision on Good Friday to renege on a pairing agreement in the upper house over the state’s Fire Services Reform Bill. The Coalition is still facing daily criticism for the move, which saw two MPs granted pairs to leave the chamber on religious grounds, only for them to return to the chamber minutes before the vote and block the bill. Mr White said that responses to questions on law and order and energy indicated that voters could be thinking more closely about who they would vote for in the upcoming election.
Women egged in anti-Semitic attack at Bondi Beach
Three men allegedly set upon a number of women on Saturday night in Sydney's east, throwing eggs at them, with police believing they were targeted because of the clothes they were wearing.
Nation ‘must not go down road’ of faith-based parties: PM
Parties founded on religion would undermine social cohesion, according to Anthony Albanese, as he reminded rogue senator Fatima Payman that she owed her election to Labor pre-selection.