Coalition believes it can take Top End seats from Labor

The Northern Territory offers the Coalition a rare opportunity to take seats from Labor.

Prominent indigenous leaders Robin Granites, left, Lance McDonald and Conrad Ratara at Alice Springs. Picture: Chloe Erlich

If you believe pub psephologists, the Coalition has a candidate for a Labor seat in the Northern Territory who can’t win and another who ought not to be able to lose.

The Territory offers the ­Coalition a rare opportunity to take seats from Labor at the next federal election, assuming national polls and local predictions are correct.

With only two seats in the offing — Lingiari and Solomon, both held by Labor on margins of 8.1 per cent and 6.2 per cent — the ­Coalition can’t lose any more.

Well-known indigenous woman Jacinta Price has won plenty of support on the east coast of Australia for her campaign in Lingiari with her outspoken views on Aboriginal culture and family violence. In the bush, it’s a different story.

Bush electors tend to divide along family and clan lines, with the backing of a prominent leader bringing support from many of their relatives.

Lance McDonald, a key figure in the Red Centre community of Papunya, warns Ms Price’s ­opponent, veteran Labor MP Warren Snowdon, has a tough fight because “he has not done much on the big issues”.

But Mr McDonald and others such as Robin Granites from Yuendumu and Conrad Ratara from Ntaria are offended by what they see as Ms Price’s broadbrush attacks on Aboriginal men.

“She really needs to apologise to Aboriginal men,” Mr McDonald said. “She doesn’t come to sorry business, doesn’t paint herself or join in with corroborees, so why is she talking about becoming an Aboriginal leader?”

Mr Granites says Ms Price must “slow down on cultural ­issues”. He links violence to ­alcoholism and drug abuse in towns instead.

However, both have softened their positions on Ms Price’s candidacy in recent months, and neither rule out voting for her.

 

Mr Ratara agrees with Ms Price that some men do abuse their wives. “I would like to support her, but the way she’s going makes that difficult,” he said.

“Some men have problems with their wives as well … (and) there are a lot of people who are not violent. She’s tarring everyone with the same brush.”

Lingiari covers the Territory, excluding Greater Darwin. A ­recent redistribution moved several thousand conservative-leaning rural and outer suburban electors into the seat.

Charles Darwin University public policy professor Rolf Gerritsen said Ms Price was “the sort of person who appeals to rednecks”, and bush voters no longer reliably back Labor.

But he still predicted Mr Snowdon would win narrowly.

“I unfortunately follow Warren on Facebook, where he ­always seems to be putting up pictures with himself pontificating about something that needs to be done and we can be assured that Warren will never do,” Professor Gerritsen said.

Turnout and name recognition will be significant factors, particularly in northern parts of Lingiari where Ms Price is not well known.

The Coalition’s candidate for Solomon is Kathy Ganley, a former deputy coroner who is related to Labor Chief Minister Michael Gunner and campaigned for him when he was first elected in 2008 and when he took government in 2016. Ms Ganley said she wanted to “put the Territory on the map … I want us to be proud”.

Some in the Country Liberal Party don’t take her seriously.

A whispering campaign says she can’t win; she has received ­little ­financial support. Ms Ganley has been working the streets full time since last April and estimates she will soon have invested more than $50,000 of her own money, including buying an ad on the front page of the local newspaper every Saturday until the May poll.

She has the advantage of poor performance by the Gunner government.

“Territorians don’t distinguish between federal and local politicians,” Ms Ganley said. “People are looking for a change.”

Her opponent, Solomon MP Luke Gosling, achieved a 7.4 per cent swing against the Coalition at the 2016 election, aided by the pantomime outgoing Giles CLP Territory administration.

Mr Gosling said he had worked hard for the electorate and a Labor government would back the Territory financially. “A strong Darwin means a more secure Australia,” he said. Mr Gosling acknowledged ­Coalition attacks on Labor for supporting changes to asylum-seeker medical transfers had caused concern among his constituents.