Bumper crops despite deluge

RECORD winter crop yields are still forecast despite heavy rains and flooding along the east coast.

RECORD winter crop yields are still forecast despite heavy rains and flooding along the east coast.

However, the value of the wheat, barley and canola harvest is expected to be significantly lower than previously predicted.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences yesterday released their December forecast, predicting a record production of 26.8 million tonnes of winter crops, up 22 per cent, or almost 5 million tonnes, on the 2009-10 season.

"Despite the adverse effect of the recent rain in eastern Australia on the quality of winter crops, it is forecast that record yields will still be achieved in most of the eastern grains belt," the ABARES report says.

"In regions that have recently received heavy rainfall, the chance of achieving prime milling grades of wheat has been reduced for crops yet to be harvested."

Industry experts have indicated that heavy rains could strip up to $3 billion off the value of this season's crops, with much of the wheat still in rain-drenched paddocks expected to be downgraded to feed quality produce.

The situation is reversed in Western Australia, where forecasts are predicted to be less than half of last season's crop at just 6 million tonnes.

In their report, ABARES cut their Australian wheat export target from 18.4 million tonnes to 16 million tonnes.

This estimate is still higher than the Commonwealth Bank's wheat export forecast of 14 million tonnes released over the weekend.

ABARES yesterday delivered their forecasts on the volume of winter crops expected to be harvested.

It will report next week on the forecast value of those crops.

Bruce Bowen, one of the authors of the ABARES crop report, said: "Certainly, as far as the quality of the crop is concerned, we think it is too early to tell how much of the crop will be downgraded."

He said ABARES was working on the assumption that most rain-damaged crops across the country could still be sold as stock feed.

"We are not forecasting huge amounts of crop losses, no," he said.

"We don't have evidence at this stage of that total damage."

According to bulk commodity handler GrainCorp, the harvest in Queensland is more than 60 per cent complete, but the quality is mixed. Further south, rains are delaying the harvest for up to two weeks, with only 5 per cent of the crop in southeastern Victoria being harvested.

Mr Bowen said he did not expect the locust threat to cause widespread damage to crops waiting to be harvested.

National Farmers Federation president Jock Laurie yesterday met Agriculture Minister Joe Ludwig and representatives from the leading four banks to discuss the crop forecasts.

"This is one of the biggest winter wheat crops Australia has had but there will be quite a significant downgrade from top quality to food grain," Mr Laurie said.

Global wheat prices have soared this week amid fears of a damaged winter crop.

ABARES has predicted that summer cotton crop will more than double in 2010-11 to more than 550,000ha and rice plantings were also more than four times greater than last season due to water availability.