Big year ahead for elections

NEXT week is not just the resumption of parliament federally; it marks the start of what will be a bumper election year all round.

NEXT week is not just the resumption of parliament federally; it marks the start of parliamentary sittings for both tiers of government in what will be a bumper election year.

South Australia and Tasmania go to the polls in March, Victoria in November. And while the federal government could in theory hold off calling an election until the first half of next year, it will be sure to face the people before its three years are up at the end of November.

When the year is over, the election extravaganza won't be, as NSW goes to the polls in late March next year. For the next 14 months, everything will be viewed through the prism of electioneering.

Election years usually guarantee spend-a-thons as governments and oppositions attempt to buy the requisite number of votes they need to win. But in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, and with the spectre of rising interest rates and ballooning government debt, the 2010 election extravaganza could turn into a fiscally tight 12 months.

Opinion polls suggest the return of the state Labor governments in South Australia and Victoria, but the chances of the Bartlett-led Labor government in Tasmania aren't so certain. The unique Hare-Clark electoral system might make it hard for the Liberals to win with a majority in their own right, but Labor is on the nose and the Greens will need to consider supporting a minority conservative government if they don't want to be seen as a militant branch of the Labor Party.

Federally, Kevin Rudd has little to fear from the Coalition so soon after the downfall of John Howard. Labor's real test will be if it can increase its majority on the strength of two years of extraordinarily good polling and favourable electoral redistributions. Anything less than an increased majority for Labor will be seen as a failure by most commentators.

The expectations generated by opinion polling in the three states and federally are broadly matched by the odds at the betting agencies. Centrebet has the SA, Victorian and federal governments as unbackable favourites - so much so that a dabble on the Coalition in any of the three jurisdictions will be difficult for punters to resist.

In Tasmania the odds narrowly favour the Labor government being returned, $1.75 to $2. But that is probably a result of money posted before Labor's political fortunes dropped away.

The odds are that while 2010 will be a busy year for our political parties, it could turn out to be a predictable one.