Abbott rubbing the shine off Rudd

Tony Abbott is not popular, but his brand of opposition politics is nevertheless succeeding in hurting Kevin Rudd

Abott Rudd

THE all-important net satisfaction rating for the respective political leaders from Tuesday's Newspoll tells an interesting story. While Tony Abbott has not started as strongly as previous Coalition leaders Brendan Nelson (+17) or Malcolm Turnbull (+25), in just a couple of Newspoll results since his arrival Kevin Rudd's net satisfaction rating has fallen considerably.

The take out of this is that Abbott is not popular, but his brand of opposition politics is nevertheless succeeding in taking the shine off Rudd.

In the past three Newspolls, Rudd's net satisfaction rating -- derived by subtracting the percentage who describe themselves as dissatisfied from those who are satisfied -- has fallen from 26 to 18 to 12, and Abbott can take credit for the slide. At its peak, Rudd had a net satisfaction rating of 57 and his average during Turnbull's time as Liberal leader was more than 30 (Turnbull's fell to -33). Rudd's rating is almost half what it was when it was at its lowest during either previous Liberal leader's time in charge.

Much of the commentary about Abbott has been that he will provide a sharp contrast to Rudd. That contrast appears to be making voters think twice about Rudd's deliberately bland bureaucratic style, which is not as appealing as it once was.

While the satisfaction ratings and party polling numbers show positives trends for the Coalition, they are by no means the beginning of an unstoppable change in the political dynamic. Liberals rejoiced when the two-party-preferred poll results had them at 48 per cent to 52 per cent, which says more about the depths to which they have plummeted in recent times.

Generally, oppositions need to be at least level pegging with a government on the two-party vote when going into the formal campaign period, the view being that incumbents have inbuilt advantages when campaigning and can more easily pull away at that time. Rudd remains the favourite to win the next election, and on the numbers he should do so fairly comfortably.

But Abbott has ended Rudd's honeymoon after two years of outstandingly good personal satisfaction ratings.