John Brumby bares his jaws

THE Victorian Premier is angry at shrinking federal health funding.

HE calls it Jaws. And if John Brumby has his way, it will be the graph that takes a huge bite out of Kevin Rudd's health reforms.

"Show us Jaws? Jaws is a great graph," the Victorian Premier, says, urging his press secretary to leaf to the corresponding page of the health plan he is advocating as a rival to the Prime Minister's.

One line of the gaping shark's mouth is said to represent federal funding in health. The other line is state funding. "That's where we were just after a decade ago, 50-50 basically, and that's just what has been happening," he tells Focus. "It [the commonwealth contribution] just went down and down and down and down and down."

You can almost hear the sinister soundtrack in the background. Some have dismissed Brumby's clash with Rudd as a political Punch and Judy show.

But Brumby's sense of betrayal at what Rudd is proposing - especially his plan to bankroll the new health funding arrangements with a thick slice of the state's GST - appears genuine. Brumby went beyond just trading insults when has released an alternative health plan last week that he later described as "streets, suburbs, states" ahead of Rudd's proposal.

But he upped the pressure on the Prime Minister even further when he flew into enemy territory, skipping his own Victorian parliament question time to address the National Press Club in Canberra.

His message to the country could not be clearer: he would not accept Rudd's plan to increase the federal share of hospitals funding to 60 per cent from 40 per cent and taking 30 per cent of the states' GST revenue. Instead Brumby wants a 50-50 split in funding and the GST left alone.

"We've got a GST claw-back that adds no new money to the system; we've got a health system that's proposed to be run out of Canberra," he told the press club. "And it's for those two fundamental reasons that Victoria cannot and will not support the commonwealth proposal."

In response, Rudd and some state counterparts have upped their attack.

That's when things started getting really nasty. South Australian Premier Mike Rann dubbed Brumby the "patron saint of lost causes" while Rudd linked him with Tony Abbott as an opponent of hospital reform.

"What the Australian government wants to deliver is better health and better hospital services for all Australians, and we will not accept a recipe for inaction by either Premier Brumby or, for that matter, Mr Abbott," Rudd said on Thursday.

There is immense pressure on Brumby for his refusal to back Rudd's plan at Monday's Council of Australian Governments meeting without significant changes, which the Prime Minister has ruled out. Brumby is being accused by his opponents of being a bully and holding the other states to ransom to get what he wants.

But the important voice missing in all of this is that of the public. What do Victorian voters think of this stand-off? Do they think it is about policy or just a clash of egos? And what are the risks for Brumby in taking such an obstructionist position in an election year?

Labor sources say cabinet is backing the Premier every step of the way as ministers believe he is standing up for the state. They say he is honestly concerned about Rudd's health policy and its implications for Victoria, something they say can be seen only as commendable among voters.

"You have to take your hat off to him . . . he is not one who sits around and marks time in office," one source says. "The real political risk here is to just roll over and sign up to the deal that would have damaged the strength of the Victorian health system."

A senior lecturer in politics at Melbourne's Monash University, Nick Economou, also believes Brumby does not have much to lose by going head to head with Rudd on such an important issue.

"I think there is a little bit of risk for Brumby to be painted as someone who blocked moves to solve health problems," he says.

"But that has been mitigated by the view that Victoria has the best managed health system, even if that may not be the experience of most people when they go to hospital."

Economou also says there is no doubt that, for Brumby, this squabble is not about the politics. In the past, when the Premier was not happy with planned reforms, he has made it known. "I am sure there is some ego involved but I think this is more policy," Economou says. "Brumby has stood out from the gang before on water, in the fight over the Murray-Darling . . . so he has form in upsetting Canberra's attempts to set national policy."

But political commentator Paul Strangio believes there are risks involved for Brumby and he is not sure whether Victorian voters will back his stance if it stands in the way of improving the hospital system.

"I think the public has less tolerance for state parochialism and I think there is a genuine desire for reform in health," he says. "Brumby's stance does play to his strengths. He is a policy figure and he wants to project that during this year's election campaign, but whether he is seen as too negative, it's a fine balance and it's very hard to know what the public thinks."

Strangio believes one advantage of the stance Brumby has taken is that he has managed to isolate the state opposition; there has been hardly a word out of leader Ted Baillieu on the issue.

Economou and Strangio believe Brumby has dug in his heels for now and the commonwealth will have to come up with some type of face-saving solution for all parties at COAG.

"I wouldn't be surprised if Rudd pulled a rabbit out of the hat in terms of more money," Economou says. "It is more urgent for Rudd to get an outcome than it is Brumby . . . because they could face an election as early as August 28."

Rudd certainly has his work cut out on Monday to convince Brumby to sign up for the deal. The Premier has done little to hide his contempt for the federal funding plan, as well as his belief that in the past decade the commonwealth has failed to fund the health system properly . He says this lack of funding as the main reason the nation's health system needs additional life support.

And if there was any doubt about Brumby's motivation to take such a defiant stance against Rudd's health plan, his response when asked whether it is simply political posturing in a election year reveals all.

"Who said that? I haven't heard that," the Victorian Premier asks, taken aback and almost offended by the suggestion when it is put to him by Focus.

"I wish life was so simple . . . anyone who thinks this is some sort of clever debate that has been created, I think misunderstands the strength of feeling about taking the GST."