Flawed morality of the middle class hurts Liberals

The PM faces a revolt from those in the middle class moralistic about climate change and compassionate in its politics.

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The Morrison government faces a revolt of the middle class — or at least a section of the middle class that is moralistic about climate change, compassionate in its politics, well-off in income terms and alienated from the Liberal Party it once supported.

Try this for a novel idea: these alienated progressive Liberals now backing independents in leafy wealthy seats have been since time immemorial part of the core Liberal base — now a lost part of that base — that once made these seats pure blue in Liberal loyalty.

The Morrison government, ­befitting its pragmatic nature, must act. The government is planning to pump more money into the Emissions Reduction Fund to enable it to keep conducting ­reverse auctions in coming years with one political goal — to ensure the 26 to28 per cent emissions ­reduction target by 2030 is manifestly achievable and to kill off the argument to the contrary.

This is trying to address the gaping political hole created by the August 2018 leadership change and the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull: the loss of climate change credibility. This has spilled over into an independent-based electoral movement that saw Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth fall and now threatens both Tony ­Abbott in Warringah and Health Minister Greg Hunt in Flinders.

There is a de facto alliance at work creating havoc in the Liberal heartland. It comprises the “compassionate” and “moralistic” independents milking Liberal alienation and, in Abbott’s case, fanning personal hatreds, and the Left’s political stormtroopers in the form of GetUp and trade union muscle.

While the model is Kerryn Phelps’s successful campaign in Wentworth, none of the other ­independents possesses her ­experienced profile in their seats or the unique aspect of that ­by-election — her tapping into anger in Turnbull’s seat at his ­removal. The Wentworth model might not be fully transferable but the risks are high for targeted Liberals.

While an expanded Emissions Reduction Fund does not substitute for the abandonment of the national energy guarantee, the ­reality is that the fund remains the government’s principal mechanism to combat climate change. Its $2.55 billion allocation to purchase emission reductions is ­nearly exhausted, with only $226 million left, and the government is expected to announce a new agenda to extend into the 2020s.

The middle class revolt is moralistic in character, ideological in policy — pledged to renewables as a faith — insists the Liberals have failed to confront the climate change challenge ade­quately and either plays down or ignores the economic costs to the community.

It is, in part, a manifestation of what political scientist Judith Brett branded the moral middle class as a foundation of Liberal Party support — the argument being that Liberal success was never driven just by economic ­interest but resides in the connection between the party and middle-class morality.

Patching up the climate change credibility gap is the best Scott Morrison can do at this stage, but the problem merely highlights the political insanity of the conservative media cabal that has been drum-beating for months to relax or modify the 26-28 per cent emission reduction targets and walk out of the Paris Agreement. If you want a prescription for political suicide, this is hard to beat.

Meanwhile, the government, through Energy Minister Angus Taylor, works the other side of the debate: it will underwrite new ­energy projects based on 24/7 dispatchable power to get extra supply into the system. Taylor’s priority is gas. But coal, gas and hydro are in the mix, with the final announcements coming soon of projects across several states.

The government will intensify its campaign on the economic harm arising from Labor’s 45 per cent emissions reduction target. Taylor says this “will involve seriously damaging core sectors in the Australian economy”. The government will target the specific regions most affected, but the key state is Queensland, where Gladstone, Bundaberg and ­Mackay are exposed in a network of industries at risk. The consequence, Taylor says, is obvious: under the 45 per cent target industry will shift to western China where emissions are higher, and Australian jobs will be lost.

In short, the government wants the independents, Labor and the Greens to be held ­accountable for all sides of the moral argument about climate change action. Yet the inevitable electoral fight on two fronts facing the Morrison government is daunting — it needs to buttress its climate change credibility for the two-thirds of the population that expect Australian action while hammering its obligation to the economy and power prices for the two-thirds that reject economic and household damage as the price for such climate change ­action.

The symbolism of the campaign against Abbott is stark. The Labor Party cannot beat Abbott. He can only be beaten by a particular type of middle-class revolt. This revolt is the antithesis of the forces that saw Abbott elected prime minister in 2013, when he ran on repeal of the carbon tax and as a social conservative.

Its values are climate change activism and social progressivism but the pervasive message runs deeper — this is the claim that ­Abbott’s brand of Liberalism has lost touch with voters and lost touch with the emerging trend of middle class morality.

The stakes, in short, transcend Abbott and go to the contested character of the Liberal Party now deeply divided between moderates and conservatives. Abbott’s opponent, former Olympian, barrister and sports administrator Zali Steggall, is impressive on paper, with a long family history in the Manly-based seat.

Yet her credentials with Liberal voters are highly dubious. Steggall says she is pitching to moderate Liberal voters, yet ­revealed in this week’s interview with David Speers on Sky that, while not voting Labor, she had never voted for Abbott at the nine elections since he came into parliament in 1994 at a by-election.

That is, she never voted for John Howard at his 1996 victory, never voted for the Howard government, let alone the Abbott or Turnbull governments. Such a consistent position surely makes her sound like a highly committed anti-Liberal candidate, not a Liberal loyalist now disillusioned.

Signalling climate change as a priority, Steggall called Labor’s 45 per cent emissions reduction target by 2030 a “start”, but said it was not enough and “we need to push for more”. She nominated climate change activist Tim Flannery as a reference point and said her position was part of the “sensible centre” of politics.

Abbott responded immediately, branding her a “carbon tax” advocate. This suggests a local ­­re-run of the national 2013 contest. “She’s got to be the carbon tax candidate,” Abbott said. “We can’t do more on climate change without putting more costs on to the community. If the government’s response is inadequate, we need to know what the government should be doing. You can’t run for parliament just striking a pose or offering a wish list. It’s a got to be a practical policy and that means looking at what it costs the community and what the community gains.”

The election will test whether Abbott’s stance on climate change remains viable. He is a formidable incumbent with deep ties in Warringah, immense capacity as a grassroots campaigner, a proven record of defeating protest-­inspired independents and loyalties that run deeper than many people realise.

At the 2016 election, Abbott suffered a hefty swing against him but still polled 51.65 per cent of primary votes. He wants to remain in parliament and exert an influence on the future course of Liberal politics, while his opponents want to terminate his career and his ­influence within the party.

The divisions within the party on climate change are unresolved but now mainly submerged. They were a factor, however, in the 2018 leadership crisis and neither Turnbull nor former deputy Julie Bishop have forgotten. “Our party is divided on the issue of climate change and whether — or how — we respond,” Bishop was quoted yesterday as saying in a speech in Hong Kong.

“I don’t see a solution to the current impasse but investors need regulatory certainty, given the large long-term investment needed for building energy-­generating capacity.” This is an undisguised criticism of the Morrison government — the point being that leadership pressures saw the demise of the national ­energy guarantee — and constitutes political ammunition for Labor and the independents.

Greg Hunt is under threat from independent and former Liberal Julia Banks, who quit the party in protest over Turnbull’s removal and has now decided to run not in her present seat of Chisholm, which is highly marginal and where she would be competing against Labor, but against Hunt in Flinders.

Hunt, again, is a formidable local MP who had a 2016 election two-party preferred vote of 57 per cent-plus. He will be haunted by the campaign against him on the basis that he voted against Turnbull and aspired to become Peter Dutton’s deputy. However, the idea that Hunt is part of any “far Right” in the Liberals is a joke.

Banks is a case study in the phony morality of the independents. She poses as an honourable politician but comes with heavy baggage that just gets heavier. Having been elected as a Liberal in Chisholm, she betrayed the ­voters by quitting the party and offering as justification that she put “the people before the party”.

Putting that hypocrisy behind her, she has now decided to try to dislodge a sitting senior Liberal ­invoking climate change and ­female representation as her calling card. It is a brand of seat swapping worthy of the most cynical tactics of the most cynical politicians. It should invite a fitting a voting response.

In the process, Banks provoked a subtle knife jab from Hunt: “I would never walk away from the area I grew up in to try to represent another area.” It would not be unreasonable to speculate that Banks was set upon a course of revenge on the party she accused of bullying her. The Victorian party, meanwhile, is consumed with speculation about whether Turnbull’s hand has played any role in these events.

At this point GetUp enters from stage left. It is targeting prominent conservatives headed by Abbott and Dutton in his Brisbane seat of Dickson. Many of the independents who take pride in their morality have the GetUp mob behind them. With its political scalps from the 2016 election hanging from its belt, GetUp ­declares it will canvass every home in Abbott’s electorate. It is formidable partly because its task is to destroy; it is not a political party promoting its own MPs.

Its tactics, as documented in The Australian, are for its volunteers to connect with voters hostile to Abbott by describing how he “negatively impacted a compassionate value in my life”. The volunteers will tell voters the election is an opportunity to raise standards and vote out politicians who don’t act on our values.

Anybody up for a serious ­debate about morality in politics?