Tony Abbott's risky mining venture

TONY Abbott's loose lips on mining could have serious implications for the opposition.

coal seam gas wells

IT was not the return from his overseas holiday that Opposition Leader Tony Abbott was looking for. Refreshed from the two-week break, he was keen to start back where he left off: condemning Labor's carbon tax backflip.

Instead Abbott walked straight into a divisive debate over coal-seam gas exploration and mining rights on farmland.

He elevated the temperature of the debate considerably when he went on radio presenter Alan Jones's Sydney program, clearly taking the side of farmers by stating that "if you don't want something to happen on your land, you ought to have a right to say no" to it being accessed for minerals exploration.

It led to a torrent of criticism from mining groups and the Gillard government, an unusual alliance in the wake of divisive arguments about the introduction of a super profits tax on the industry.

Abbott's loose remarks were putting a multibillion-dollar industry at risk, Resources Minister Martin Ferguson claimed, raising the spectre of sovereign risk. Queensland Premier Anna Bligh agreed.

Her state budget relies on the revenue streams from coal seam gas mining.

The leader of the LNP in Queensland, Campbell Newman, provided some respite for Abbott, saying that farmers needed greater protections and ruling out coal-seam gas mining at two key sites. But even he wasn't prepared to endorse Abbott's blanket "right to say no" position.

On Sky News's Australian Agenda program on Sunday, Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese used a bizarre press conference in Perth where Abbott refused to repeat his remarks -- walking away from reporters -- to highlight the Opposition Leader's "opportunistic" tendencies.

"Tony Abbott has one message for farmers on the east coast and an opposite message for miners on the west coast . . . this is a pattern of behaviour . . . he put Peter Reith into the field as national president of the Liberal Party and then voted for Alan Stockdale," Albanese said.

"He has one message on climate change when he wants to say that he cares about it, and then you'll recall [him] saying it was crap. He has different messages for different audiences. He is an opportunist."

By yesterday, Abbott appeared to be in retreat from his stated position on the Jones program, with a spokesman claiming he was only ever talking about farmers' rights on "prime agricultural land".

But not before the Nationals had been emboldened by his stand in this debate.

They now have a series of motions planned for their federal executive to consider in a fortnight's time, including requiring all purchases of agricultural land for changed usage to be measured against a toughened national interest test.

And a motion will also call for mandatory studies to be done on the impact on the water table, which could cause delays costing the states millions of dollars in royalties revenue.

Abbott even almost found himself in lock-step with the Greens when they said that they would be seeking the support of the Coalition for a private members bill to give farmers a right of veto over coal-seam gas operations on their land.

He was quick to distance himself from the Greens motion, pointing out that they "are just against mining full stop". Liberal MPs cried foul, claiming the Greens were simply trying to wedge them on this issue.

The Australian's cartoonist Bill Leak used the situation yesterday to draw Abbott in bed with Greens leader Bob Brown, under the caption: "Don't worry, Tony -- everyone gets a bit nervous the first time."

With parliament resuming today after the winter recess it hasn't been the start the Opposition Leader was looking for. Labor is certain to use question time this week to raise doubts about Abbott's sure-handedness as the alternative prime minister.

Farming rights versus coal- seam gas exploration and mining rights is a sensitive political subject. Popular opinion seems to be on the side of the farmers, but the importance of the mining industry to the national economy can't be overstated.

"My worry is that damage to the coal-seam gas industry is damage to a vital sector for jobs growth into the future," says Paul Howes, the head of the Australian Workers' Union.

"With a strong Australian dollar, sectors like manufacturing and tourism are being weakened. Coal-seam gas has the potential to fill that breach in the years ahead."

Ferguson has also pointed out that unlike other mining sectors, the dominant players in the coal-seam gas sector are Australian companies.

"People have got to understand that this is also not just foreign investment. This is two major Australian companies, Santos and Origin," Ferguson told Sky News.

In Abbott's interview with Jones on Friday, Jones used strong rhetoric to draw Abbott out on the notion of a blanket right for farmers to say no. Jones spoke of farming land being "run over by mining. We're strangers in our own land. This is an invasion".

However, Abbott started the interview where he ended yesterday after days of political mismanagement. In his initial response to Jones's first question on the topic, Abbott said: "Well, Alan, we can't do anything and mustn't do anything that destroys prime agricultural land . . ." but was cut off by the host.

That looming context for his remarks was lost in the intense exchanges that followed, again highlighting the risks for Abbott in supping to his right flank by appearing on shows such as Jones's rather than focusing on the political centre.

It was reminiscent of the time in October last year when Jones cut into the character of the director of military prosecutions, Lyn McDade, because of her decision to charge three Australian soldiers in Afghanistan with manslaughter. In an interview with Jones at the time, Abbott didn't rise to the defence of McDade, even taking the opportunity to suggest soldiers had a right to feel "stabbed in the back by their own government".

While Abbott's latest misstep on coal-seam gas versus farming rights has given the government a free kick at the Opposition Leader's expense, and does raise issues about Abbott's propensity to shoot from the hip in certain situations, the long-term political damage is unlikely to be significant.

The government's political woes were again on display yesterday with the release of the Nielsen poll in Fairfax Media putting Labor's primary vote at just 28 per cent and Julia Gillard's preferred PM ratings lower than Abbott's (44 per cent to 47 per cent).

To take the pressure off the government, Abbott will need to repeat over a considerable number of weeks the problems he has made for himself this week, given how systemic Labor's political woes appear to be.

Also, the reaction of the junior Coalition partner, the Nationals, and the risk of mining companies no longer seeing the Coalition as the firm ally they once did in the key states of Queensland and NSW are concerning consequences of Abbott's loose remarks and will worry Coalition strategists.

An emboldened Nationals has the potential to bring Coalition tensions to the fore as the election draws closer, thereby wedging Abbott on other important economic decisions as well.

In government, the divisions would be even more significant. And while Abbott's play to farming communities on the coal-seam gas issue is likely to win him votes in regional areas, political donations from big miners such as Clive Palmer will be important in tight individual contests.

Abbott's greatest strength is his retail politics and his populism, however from time to time it gets him into trouble. This is one of those times.