A fresh foreign affairs realism

REGIONAL leaders may welcome a less exciting, more stable policy outlook.

Tony Abbott and Julie Bishop

VOTERS did not flock to the Tony Abbott team primarily for its international expertise. But this is the area where Australian administrations most swiftly prove their mettle, or lose support.

Kevin Rudd started to suffer a decline in public backing as his handling of foreign affairs, supposedly his area of special skill, unravelled in his first term as prime minister. Australians, well aware the country's economic survival depends on international trade and investment, expect their leaders to demonstrate at least competence -- "vision" is not essential -- in diplomacy.

Not only voters but also foreign governments, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, have become convinced that in Julie Bishop, shortly to become Australia's first female foreign minister, they will find such competence. Abbott is only now starting to build a foreign profile, but his curiosity is expected to help him get on top of complex foreign challenges as his first term progresses. The largely positive attitude of foreign affairs experts in the region, and at home, to the change in government, contrasts sharply with the generally hostile stance of European and US media to Abbott.

Britain's The Observer stated after his victory that "his bare-knuckle brand of conservative politics created an atmosphere of crisis in the country", while the New York Times claimed, even after his thumping win, that "the socially conservative Mr Abbott has never been a hit with voters".

What's the view from the neighbourhood?

Shahriman Lockman, a Malaysian foreign policy analyst, tells The Australian: "Kevin Rudd will be remembered as someone who had big ideas, like the Asia-Pacific community proposal. But -- and I gather this somewhat mirrors his approach to domestic policy -- he didn't really have the tact and patience to engage Asian governments and see his proposal through."

He says a key challenge for the new government would be "to overcome the impression that domestic politics will overwhelmingly drive Australian foreign policy -- that it's all about stopping the boats from now on.

"Sure, Julie Bishop has talked about focusing more on Asia and on economic diplomacy: those are the sorts of initiatives that will play very well in the region." Paul Glasson, the China chairman of the Australia-China Business Council, one of Australia's most senior China-based business figures, says: "Julie Bishop has done a lot of work developing relationships with senior leaders in China over the past two years, and also brought a number of her cabinet colleagues to China. This will stand us in good stead.

"We need the government to work together with business, to consult industry experts and those involved in the relationship.

"China's investment into Australia remains important in terms of job creation, regional expansion and tax receipts. Based on my interactions with the Coalition, I think it will be a government that is very supportive of investment from China, and will promote Chinese companies working together with Australian partners, in a stable and steady fashion."

Zhu Feng, deputy director of the Centre for International and Strategic Studies at Beijing University, says he has followed the election closely.

He notes, "China-hand Rudd proved to be less skilful than completely non-China-hand Julia Gillard", in building relations with Beijing.

He says: "Tony Abbott is a pure Aussie, it seems to me. By this, I mean that he is not broadly exposed internationally. But he might prove more dedicated than his predecessors to an Asian policy, rather than a China-only policy -- which might work out nicely."

For as China's economy slows down, Beijing's demand for Australian raw materials also declines, he says, while "the economic integration between the Aussies and Asia is unstoppable".

Searching for a way to inject new energy into social and economic ties with China will be a test for Abbott, he believes, "given that they are already highly integrated economies. It really is time for Canberra to conclude its free-trade agreement with Beijing."

Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister Peter O'Neill, who has already invited Abbott to meet him during the APEC leaders' summit in Bali, described the election win in a message to Abbott as "a wonderful occasion, a true indication of the trust, confidence and support the Australian constituents have in your leadership qualities, and more importantly, in the political, economic and social policies of the Liberal Party".

Indrani Bagchi, diplomatic editor of The Times of India, says while Rudd had "a strong background in international relations, as a practitioner he probably fell short in the operations department".

"We overcame the nuclear hurdle when he was neither foreign minister, nor prime minister. I'm afraid Abbott and Bishop will be new people to understand in the coming days. Abbott seems to be setting a foreign policy path that hews more closely to the 'realist' school."

And what's the view from Australia's own international affairs experts?

Tony Milner, a professor at the Australian National University and international director at Asialink, says: "The Rudd foreign policy conveyed an unrealistic, even pompous, view of Australia's position in the world. In her personal diplomacy -- and I have heard this often -- Julia Gillard won friends as quickly as Rudd lost them: Japan, China, India, Malaysia . . . she deserves credit for this."

The Abbott government, he believes, "will focus sensibly on our region, with ASEAN diplomats and think-tank personnel speaking warmly of the care the Coalition -- especially Bishop -- have been putting into building personal relations."

The US alliance, he says, continues to be an asset in Asia, "but the US is also less important than it was. The US itself wants Australia to be a savvy operator in the region, building trust, relationships, collaboration".

"And, when the US and others think of region, with reference to Australia, I think the focus is on southeast Asia," Milner says, with the Coalition also stressing its priority on Indonesia. Malcolm Cook, dean of international relations at Flinders University, agrees. "Australia's major partners, including China, might welcome a less exciting, more stable and less personalised Australian government than a Rudd government," he says, "with the Coalition able to focus on presenting themselves as a safe and adult alternative".

Hugh White, professor of strategic studies at the ANU, says Bishop "shows every sign of being a quietly capable foreign minister, but she won't be the kind of foreign minister who makes and runs her own foreign policy.

"So, everything depends on Abbott. Like many people who become prime minister, he has few ideas about foreign policy, and no grand plans.

"He will be essentially reactive to events, and his reactions will be shaped by his conservatism and his pragmatism. These will often pull him in different directions, especially in relation to America and China. We might hope that, as it did with his mentor John Howard, the pragmatism wins."

Andrew O'Neil, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, notes that in the Coalition's foreign policy statement, "the fairly muscular tone of wanting to bolster the strategic partnership with Tokyo provides neat symmetry" with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe "issuing some pretty direct statements about the importance of 'like-minded' states sticking together".

"This will appeal to Abbott." He says: "An Abbott government will seek to capitalise on what's seen as a fairly positive Howard foreign policy legacy."

O'Neil believes Abbott, "will be snowed under by domestic challenges, but like all PMs he will over time acquire a taste for foreign policy. He's a smart guy and he will be keen to put his own imprint on what the government is doing internationally.

"He and Bishop are close, and having a senior figure as foreign minister will help to elevate foreign policy around the cabinet table. I think Abbott will be inclined to go with his instincts as well as his intellect on foreign policy, which is a good thing; but I envisage that Bishop will help shape his thinking given her proactive role in reaching out to international networks in opposition."

And what of the two biggest new policy thrusts -- towards economic diplomacy, and creating the New Colombo Plan?

White says the former remains "meaningless until they explain how they plan to do that".

Bryan Clark, international affairs director of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, says the Labor government's refusal to negotiate any agreement that involved international arbitration acted as a considerable constraint on new trade deals -- but "you have to give it marks for trying" on trade.

He says DFAT's constraints in economic diplomacy had not come from a lack of effort, but from a lack of resources.

Milner says: "The Coalition's New Colombo Plan is spot on. It is about sending our best and brightest young people not to teach in Asia but to learn from Asia."

O'Neil agrees: "This sends a really valuable signal to the region, and domestically, about the priority placed on Asian engagement."

The chairman of the Colombo steering group is Macquarie Group and Origin Energy chairman Kevin McCann, who says he benefited greatly, while at Sydney University, from being sent to study at Harvard -- "when the US was our biggest trading partner and investor. That was transformational for me. This plan will have the same impact about engagement with Asia".

He says: "Our generation in the business world doesn't have a very good understanding of the countries with which we do business, of their languages and political institutions and even geographies. The new cohort of Australian leaders will hopefully redress this deficit."