Voters will punish ‘cocky’ Labor, says Pyne, as his seat faces test

As his seat faces the Wentworth test, Christopher Pyne says voters will punish Labor for being too ‘cocky’ about the next election.

Labor is too “cocky” about winning the next election and will be punished for its “overconfidence”, Defence Minister Christopher Pyne says.

Mr Pyne, a leading moderate who backed stability rather than a leadership change in August, has found his South Australian seat of Sturt a renewed target for exuberant Labor strategists for the next election.

“Labor are so cocky they are already choosing the colour schemes for their ministerial offices,” Mr Pyne told The Australian yesterday. “The Australian voter has a habit of penalising overconfidence. I wouldn’t be quite so sure of myself, if I were them.”

Labor senator Don Farrell said although the ALP would still have to work hard to take Sturt from a seasoned campaigner like Mr Pyne, his chances of retaining the seat had been “significantly diminished” with Malcolm Turnbull’s exit.

“I think Malcolm Turnbull had a popularity in seats like Sturt that compare to Wentworth,” Senator Farrell said yesterday.

“I think the reason why Christopher Pyne was so keen to hang on to Malcolm Turnbull was that he understood the value to the Liberal Party brand of Turnbull. He understood the value of Turnbull to his chances in SA and they’ve been significantly diminished now with Turnbull out of the race.”

Independent MP Kerryn Phelps appears on track to win the Wentworth by-election and sec­ure the previously safe Liberal seat held by Mr Turnbull, which will push the Coalition into minority government.

An analysis of four Newspolls since the August 24 leadership spill — published in The Australian yesterday — cast a bleak picture for the government six months out from an expected election. Averaging poll results for the quarter, ­it includes a swing to Labor of 7 per cent in South Australia. Sturt and Boothby, won by conservative backbencher Nicolle Flint at the last election, have been identified as SA Liberal seats with a socially progressive slant, like Wentworth.

Mr Pyne, who has held Sturt since 1993, had his biggest scare at the 2007 election from Mia Handshin, a lawyer and former Young South Australian of the Year. He entered that election with a 6.8 per cent buffer but narrowly survived after a 5.9 per cent swing to Labor.

He has rebuilt the margin to 5.9 per cent but Rick Sarre, who has twice tried to win Sturt for Labor, told ABC radio: “No one can ever underestimate Christopher’s ability to campaign ... but Sturt is capable of swinging 7 per cent.”