Turnbull sinks as week of turmoil takes its toll

Labor holds its gains over the Coalition in another grim poll for the PM following the Joyce and Cash crises | EXCLUSIVE

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.

Malcolm Turnbull has taken a thumping from voters amid the shock loss of two cabinet ministers and a political storm over union raids, with the government trailing Labor by 46 to 54 per cent as it fights a by-election to hold its majority.

Voters have marked down the Prime Minister when asked if they are satisfied with his performance, while also cutting the Coalition’s primary vote from 36 to 35 per cent, one of its lowest results for the year.

But Mr Turnbull has held his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, which is unchanged at 41 to 33 per cent, despite the turmoil following the High Court’s decision to disqualify Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce and deputy leader Fiona Nash from parliament.

The result comes as cabinet ministers accuse Labor of “confected confusion” over the government’s control of the lower house, insisting they will continue to legislate with 75 out of 149 votes in the lower house while Mr Joyce fights a December 2 by-election.

Education Minister Simon Birmingham told Sky News: “I predict the Labor Party will seek to play all manner of games in the parliament, but the government will get on with its job.”

Attorney-General George Brandis hit back at Labor suggestions of turmoil in the parliament and countered Labor warnings about legal challenges to the decisions Mr Joyce made as minister when he was not eligible to sit in parliament.

While Labor has received legal advice on the decisions that could be challenged, its manager of opposition business in the lower house, Tony Burke, said last night the problem was the government’s mistake in not standing Mr Joyce aside rather than the prospect of a Labor challenge to any decision.

The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows the Coalition has lagged Labor by 46 to 54 per cent in two-party terms for three consecutive surveys after weeks of attacking the opposition on energy prices and union power.

Labor has held its primary vote at 37 per cent but has seen no immediate gain from the series of blows to the government in the past week, including the resignation of a key adviser after Employment Minister Michaelia Cash admitted her office tipped off the media about a police raid on the Australian Workers Union last Tuesday. Voters have shifted against Bill Shorten amid the focus on his time as leader of the AWU, with those satisfied with his performance slipping from 33 to 32 per cent and those dissatisfied growing from 55 to 56 per cent.

Mr Shorten’s net satisfaction rating — the difference ­between those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied with his performance — has fallen in the past three surveys from minus 20 to minus 24 percentage points.

The swing against Mr Turnbull is far more significant, however, with his net satisfaction slumping to minus 28 percentage points in the latest survey, in another display of voter frustration with political leaders. Mr Turnbull suffered a fall in the number of voters who are satisfied with his performance, down from 32 to 31 per cent, and an increase in those who are dissatisfied, up from 56 to 59 per cent in a shift that was outside the margin of error for this poll.

At 35 per cent, the Coalition’s primary vote has returned to the dire result in February despite government hopes it could stage a recovery through the year.

The Greens kept their core support at 10 per cent, showing no signs of a voter backlash from the High Court decision to disqualify two of the party’s senators, Larissa Waters and Scott Ludlam, who had resigned already.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has kept its primary vote on 9 per cent, with no change following the disqualification of Queensland senator Malcolm Roberts, but the party has slipped since it reached a high of 11 per cent in July.

Mr Turnbull’s retains his key advantage on leadership, with 41 per cent of voters naming him as preferred prime minister compared to 33 per cent for Mr Shorten, but his lead has slipped since August. The gap between the two leaders is now eight percentage points, down from 11 points one month ago and 17 points in August.

The Newspoll survey of 1623 voters was taken from Thursday to Sunday, a period with heavy coverage of the calls for Senator Cash to resign and the disqualification of Mr Joyce and Ms Nash, raising questions about the government’s ability to hold a majority in federal parliament.

All of the changes in this survey were within the margin of error of 2.5 percentage points except for the increase in Mr Turnbull’s dissatisfaction rating, with the overall results cementing Labor’s election-winning lead.

This is the 22nd consecutive Newspoll in which the Coalition has trailed Labor, a tally that Mr Turnbull set as a benchmark for leadership when he cited the loss of “30 Newspolls in a row” as a reason for challenging Tony Abbott in September 2015.