WA Newspoll: Colin Barnett in crisis as Labor surges

Colin Barnett’s leadership in WA will come under serious pressure for the first time since he came to power in 2008.

WA Premier Colin Barnett’s personal ­approval rating in Newspoll has slumped to its lowest level since he came to power eight years ago. Picture: Stewart Allen

Colin Barnett’s leadership in Western Australia will come under serious pressure for the first time since he came to power in 2008, with the latest Newspoll showing Labor has extended its election-winning lead and the Premier’s personal appeal slumping to a record low.

As the Barnett government prepares to unveil a $2 billion-plus deficit and rising debt levels in today’s state budget, the Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor is now ahead of the Liberal-­National government by 54 per cent to 46 per cent in two-party-preferred terms. This represents a swing against the government of more than 11 per cent, which would allow Labor to claim the 10 seats it needs at the election in March, assuming the swing was uniform.

The rising unpopularity of the Barnett government is worrying Liberal officials in Canberra amid fears the party will struggle to win the West Australian seats of Cowan, Burt, Hasluck and Swan at the federal election.

Mr Barnett’s personal ­approval rating in Newspoll has slumped to its lowest level since he came to power eight years ago, when the resources boom was in full swing. Just 31 per cent of voters are satisfied with his performance, compared with 58 per cent who say they are dissatisfied. This gives Mr Barnett a net satisfaction rating of -27, his worst result as Premier.

Mr Barnett’s net satisfaction rating was an impressive +30 in December 2011, when his government led Labor 59 per cent to 41 per cent. Mr Barnett’s net satisfaction rating is one of the worst recorded by a premier in Newspoll.

Those who have posted similar ratings — including Joan Kirner, Mike Rann, Kristina Keneally and Nick Greiner — ­either resigned or lost the next election.

Mr Barnett, 65, has long ­insisted he will lead the Liberal Party to the 2017 election amid speculation that Liberal MPs want him to hand over the leadership to Deputy Premier Liza Harvey or Treasurer Mike Nahan.

The other leadership contenders, in the event of a spill or handover, would be Emergency Services Minister Joe Francis and Transport Minister Dean Nalder.

The Newspoll shows Labor leader Mark McGowan has increased his margin as preferred premier, leading Mr Barnett by 46 per cent to 32 per cent.

Mr McGowan’s satisfaction rating is up from 47 per cent to 51 per cent, while only 28 per cent of voters said they were dissatisfied with his performance.

GRAPHIC: WA Newspoll

In March, Mr McGowan fended off a leadership challenge from former federal defence minister Stephen Smith, who was backed by several Labor frontbenchers. But so far the move appears to have only boosted Mr McGowan’s standing in his party and among voters. According to Newspoll, Labor’s primary vote is steady at 42 per cent, while the Liberal-National primary vote fell from 42 per cent to 40 per cent. Support for the Greens rose from 10 per cent to 11 per cent.

The Newspoll was conducted between early March and last weekend. It was based on 949 ­interviews with voters across Western Australia.

Today’s budget is likely to show an improvement in the state’s finances since the mid-year review in December, which forecast a $2.97 billion deficit in 2016-17 and net debt rising to $34.7bn. Mr Barnett said this week government had cut spending and was also benefiting from a stronger iron ore price since the December forecasts.

“The budget figures will show the Treasurer has been very successful in containing the growth in government spending, so we’re taking a very responsible ­approach,” he said. “Our debt ­figures have tended to be more moderate.”

However, the government will not fully commit to the sale or lease of Western Power in today’s budget. The privatisation of the state’s poles and wires network would raise up to $15bn to pay down debt but the government is likely to seek a mandate on the move at the election.

The Labor Party and the ­unions are opposed to any sale of electricity assets, which will ­create a virtual referendum on the issue at the election. Mr Barnett said Western Australia ­remained in a tight financial position, but he believed the bottom of the economic cycle had been reached.

“I’m not saying we’re going to head into some new boom period but I think we’ve come through the bottom,” he said.

A Commonwealth Bank ­report this week showed Western Australia had dropped from fifth to sixth in an economic rankings of the states. The state is ranked seventh on business investment, population growth and housing finance.