WA election Newspoll: Libs need last-gasp deal with Pauline Hanson

The latest Newspoll suggests rapid ­re-emergence of One Nation will hinder Colin Barnett’s attempt to win a third term.

WA Premier Colin Barnett. Picture: Colin Murty.

Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is soaring across Western Australia ahead of next month’s state election, in a ­dramatic shift that could deliver it lower house seats and help the Labor Party win government.

The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian this week, suggests the rapid ­re-emergence of One Nation will hinder Premier Colin Barnett’s attempt to win a third term on March 11.

The result will increase pressure on Mr Barnett — the ­nation’s longest-serving leader — to negotiate a preference-swap deal with One Nation, which could be his only chance of hanging on to power.

With the campaign officially beginning this week, the Labor Party under Mark McGowan has increased its election-­winning lead over the Liberal-National government.

The ALP leads by 54 per cent to 46 per cent in two-party preferred terms — up from 52-48 in the last Newspoll in October — which would deliver the party 14 more seats at the election and make Mr McGowan premier.

The Liberal Party’s primary vote has slumped to just 30 per cent — its worst result in the ­Barnett era. Labor’s primary vote also went backwards, from 41 per cent to 38 per cent.

But One Nation’s share of the statewide primary vote soared from 3 per cent to 13 per cent, making it more likely the party will hold the balance of power in the upper house.

Senator Hanson unveiled her candidates for the election only last month after the party had been largely inactive in Western Australia for years.

One Nation’s leader in the state, businessman Colin Tincknell, claimed last night that ­internal party polling was showing it could win more than 30 per cent of the vote in several seats in regional and outer-suburban areas, where the state’s economic downturn was hitting hard.

Attributing One Nation’s success to voters being sick of “political correctness”, he said the party aimed to win the seats of Swan Hills, Darling Ranges, Baldivis, Central Wheatbelt, Roe, Moore, Pilbara, Kalgoorlie, Collie-Preston and Warren-Blackwood.

All but two of the seats are held by the Liberal-National government.

“In those 10 seats, we are running second at the moment,’’ Mr Tincknell said. “We can win them by polling 35 per cent (of the primary vote) and then picking up another 15 per cent of the vote on preferences.”

WA One Nation state leader Colin Tincknel. Picture: Colin Murty.

The Newspoll survey also asked One Nation voters about how they intended to allocate their preferences.

The flow of preferences was split roughly 50-50 between Labor and the Liberal-Nationals, which would boost Labor’s chances in several conservative-held seats that it aims to win.

The Liberals are expected to ­attempt to strike a preference deal with One Nation, but Mr Tincknell said last night he expected One Nation would allocate preferences equally to both Liberal and Labor in different seats.

He defended the party’s policy of opposing the sale of poles-and-wires utility Western Power, a move proposed by the Barnett government that would slash state debt by about $8 billion.

“Quick fixes are not the answer (to cutting debt),” he said. “Once you privatise — the TAB, Western Power, or the ports — once we get rid of all of our assets, history tells us that the cost of living goes up.

“So when you’re on the margins, when you’re a pensioner or a low-income worker, you can’t ­afford to pay more for power or going down to have a bet.”

Mr Tincknell said he believed debt would need to be repaid slowly, but the best way to fix the budget was to create jobs. “I’m sick and tired of McGowan, Barnett and (Nationals leader Brendon) Grylls saying we can fix the budget in one term — they’re just hoodwinking the public,’” he said.

According to Newspoll, Mr Barnett’s personal approval ratings have improved slightly but ­remain among the lowest ever ­recorded by a state leader.

Only 32 per cent of voters are satisfied with his performance and 57 per cent are dissatisfied. In contrast, 46 per cent of voters are happy with Mr McGowan and 34 per cent are dissatisfied.

On the question of who would make a better premier, 32 per cent nominated Mr Barnett and 44 per cent chose Mr McGowan.