Victorian election: Labor poised to seize government

VICTORIAN Labor has stormed to power after one term in the wilderness as at least one Greens MP looks set for the lower house.

Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews voting at Albany Rise Primary School in Mulgrave with his wife Catherine. Picture: Alex Coppel.

VICTORIAN Labor has stormed to power after just a term in the wilderness but for the first time at least one Greens MP is set to be elected to the lower house.

After 36 per cent of the vote, Labor was poised to win as many as 48 seats in the Legislative Assembly, the Coalition on 38 and one or two Greens and an independent.

The Nationals appeared to have suffered a significant backlash in two seats, possibly losing Morwell, which was held by Energy Minister Russell Northe.

A second Nationals seat - Shepparton in the state’s north - was a 26 per cent Nationals’ seat but was at risk of falling to an independent in the wake of the SPC cannery controversy.

Labor appears likely to keep all of its seats in regional Victoria and pick up as many as four of the sandbelt seats in south-eastern Melbourne.

But Labor is also at risk of losing the two inner city seats of Melbourne and Richmond to the Greens, a result that caught the major parties by surprise.

The loss will be devastating for Premier Denis Napthine who becomes only the second premier to lose office after a term in nearly 60 years.

The one black spot for Labor appeared to be the marginal seat of Ivanoe, in Melbourne’s inner northeast, where rising ALP star Anthony Carbines was struggling to hold on to power.

After 22 per cent of the vote, Labor had secured 44 seats, one short of a majority, with a two party-preferred swing of 3.7 per cent.

Labor strategists said, however, it was too soon to call the election.

Former Labor premier Steve Bracks said: “I am reading it as a very likely Labor win.’’

Community Services Minister Mary Wooldridge last night blamed federal factors for many of the problems faced by the Coalition.

``I think the federal issues have been very important,’’ she told the ABC.

"And you wouldn’t have 80 per cent of the Labor Party’s negative advertising featuring Tony Abbott as well as Denis Napthine if the Labor Party didn’t think the federal issues swing votes.

"I think it has been significant.’’

Ms Wooldridge said some other issues were at play, including the behaviour of rebel independent Geoff Shaw.

But the benefits of the state budget were drowned out by the federal budget.

"And things have continued. Obviously with petrol taxes and cuts to the ABC are things that people care about,’’ she added.

Victorian Treasurer Michael O’Brien said that the government had failed in its early days to hammer home the financial legacy of the previous Labor government.

"All those messes that continued to hit the state finances,’’ he said.

The first exit polls pointed to a tight win by ALP leader Daniel Andrews.

ALP sources said exit polls were favouring Labor 51 per cent to 49 per cent amid expectations a majority of the 1.1 million early and postal votes favoured the opposition.

Senior ALP sources said that the large numbers of early and postal votes meant the Coalition would need to be ahead in voting today by 51 per cent to 49 per cent.

Galaxy Research’s David Briggs predicted a 49 seats to 39 seats Labor win.

Of a potential Labor win, Mr Briggs told Channel Seven: "It would be pretty much a certainty.’’

Newspoll in today’s edition of The Weekend Australian recorded a 52 per cent to 48 per cent Labor lead on the two party-preferred vote.

Exit poll predicts narrow Labor win

Former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett said he didn’t believe there was a groundswell of anger against the Coalition.

"No-one’s out there with a baseball bat,’’ he said, describing the election as having lacked passion.

Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews voting at Albany Rise Primary School in Mulgrave earlier today. Picture: Alex Coppel.

The Greens today issued how to vote cards in key seats without instructing voters on how to allocate preferences.

The move angered Labor but was in direct retaliation to Labor’s decision not to help the Greens with their preferences.

Former deputy federal leader Peter Costello told Channel Nine he believed the Coalition had started slowly during the campaign.

"I think Labor got off to a faster start. But I do think Denis Napthine came home much stronger.’’

Labor sources said there had been a betting plunge on the Labor marginal seat of Cranbourne, which has a margin of 1.2 per cent.

The bet was reportedly on a Liberal win.

Liberal sources said the marginal seat had swung back to the Coalition last week.

FULL COVERAGE: Victoria decides