Labor MPs fear Andrews is making plans to quit parliament

Key Labor MPs are preparing for Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews to quit during the next parliamentary term.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and minister Gayle Tierney in Melbourne last week. Picture: AAP

Key Labor MPs are preparing for the prospect of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews quitting during the next parliamentary term.

Mr Andrews’s future is being discussed among senior Labor figures, with pressure to start preparing for a successor in what is expected to be the second half of Labor’s next term in office.

Mr Andrews, 46, is on track to become Victorian Labor’s longest serving leader of the modern era if he remains in the position after the election.

But there is speculation among some of his most senior colleagues that he will quit well before 2022. ‘‘He will be gone within two years,’’ a senior MP said.

The Australian understands MPs are divided about the Premier’s intentions, with others arguing he will want to stay on to cement a legacy that has been tainted by internal bickering and political blunders, including the so-called red shirts affair.

On December 3, Mr Andrews will have led Labor for eight years, four in government, and within the first year of another term will overtake former premier John Cain’s leadership record of just under nine years.

Labor is increasingly optimistic it will hold on at the November 24 election, with a worst-case scenario of minority government with Greens and possibly rural independents. The Coalition needs to win eights seats to secure a majority in the 88-seat parliament. The federal Liberal leadership spat damaged the local Coalition, with Labor leading the opposition by several points in private and published political polling.

The Attorney-General, Martin Pakula, from the Right’s National Union of Workers, and the Left’s Major Projects Minister Jacinta Allan are considered frontrunners to replace Mr Andrews.

The broad Right faction, which holds the numbers in the state parliamentary caucus, will demand a big say in any leadership transition, which could be complicated by the red shirts ­affair.

Asked if he would serve the full term, Mr Andrews told The Australian: “Yes. We’ve achieved a lot since 2014, but there’s so much more to do.’’

MPs said the question was how long Mr Andrews could sustain the energy given the bitter infighting and sense of political crises that have smothered the government.

Conversely, MPs believe the government has been well managed in a policy sense, having ­engineered one of the biggest infrastructure agendas in the state’s history.

“It’s been a really messy first term and we need to start thinking about the future. Minus all the bullshit,’’ one MP said.

The last long-term Labor leader, Steve Bracks, quit in 2007 after just over eight years as leader.

Another Labor insider with long-term knowledge of Mr ­Andrews, said he would not want to quit until he was able to ensure the government had returned to political stability and there was a new generation of MPs able to rejuvenate the government.

But there has been internal speculation since late last year that Mr Andrews would walk after the next election was won.

It is estimated that as few as 14 hard-core opponents of Mr ­Andrews exist in the Labor caucus but the opposing broad Right faction now has the majority in the caucus. There is no suggestion Mr Andrews will be forced out in the short term.

Labor sources said that until the federal Liberal leadership ­debacle, there were real fears that the state opposition would be competitive enough to potentially climb over the top of the government.