Poll suggests fewer voters honestly love Brumby or his government

JOHN Brumby looked suitably bashful last week when Olivia Newton-John serenaded him with I Honestly Love You after he pledged millions of dollars to her cancer centre in Melbourne.

JOHN Brumby looked suitably bashful last week when Olivia Newton-John serenaded him with I Honestly Love You after he pledged millions of dollars to her cancer centre in Melbourne.

But the sentiment in the Victorian electorate six months out from an election is probably closer to a snipe the Premier received from the opposition during parliamentary question time that day: "You are not the one that we want." The latest Newspoll shows Brumby is the first Premier since the Labor government came to power in 1999 who has received a higher dissatisfaction than satisfaction rating. It found 45 per cent of 1140 Victorians polled in March and the beginning of April were not happy with his performance compared with 43 per cent who were satisfied.

It is a dramatic drop for Brumby, who has fallen from a high of 52 per cent after the Black Saturday bushfires.

Brumby is very different from his predecessor, the affable Steve Bracks. And he has not been tested at the ballot box since he rose from Treasurer to Premier in 2007. In 1996, he led Labor in opposition to electoral defeat. Bracks replaced him as leader just six months before wresting power from Jeff Kennett by the slimmest of margins in 1999.

Approval for the state government also dropped in the poll. The primary vote for Labor fell below the Coalition for the first time in two years and Green preferences are all that would save Labor if there were an election now.

Some Labor insiders do not seem too worried about Brumby's fall in approval, which they attribute to a variety of reasons.

One school of thought is it is just a symptom of a decade-old government that voters are tiring of. They also argue the contest always gets closer about six months out from an election.

A campaign addressing voter concerns on health, law and order and transport therefore would redress the balance in the polls. The government has already started with last week's budget pledges of $4 billion for health and $678 million for extra police.

The other is the Rudd factor. They believe every Labor government is suffering as the Labor brand declines with the Prime Minister's popularity. The coming federal election gets thrown into that mix, but some say any anti-Rudd-Labor sentiment will ease after the federal contest.

The one undeniable issue facing Brumby is his distinctive personality. He could not be more different from his predecessor. Brumby is serious, stubborn and self-assured to the point where some see him as arrogant.

His supporters see this as a strength; he is passionate, he stands up for what he believes in.

But there are negatives. Earlier this year, he was perceived as refusing to acknowledge Indian students' concerns about violence. This also can be said for general concerns Victorians have about law and order. And the jury is still out on whether his altercation with Kevin Rudd over health went down any better.

One aspect of the Newspoll in Brumby's favour is that Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu's personal satisfaction decreased too. So although the Coalition is picking up support, Baillieu is not.