NSW Election 2011 live blog
The Australian's NSW election night blog tracked the carnage across the state as the outgoing Labor government suffered a routing at the ballot box.
The Australian's NSW election night blog tracked the carnage across the state as the outgoing Labor government suffered a routing at the ballot box. Read how the night unfolded.
10.43 pm The people have spoken
It's time to call it a night. So what have we learnt?
Kristina Keneally returns to the backbench as Barry O'Farrell becomes the Coalition's first Premier in 16 years.
The Liberals and Nationals are likely to have an overwhelming majority in the new parliament after Labor suffered a 17 per cent swing against it.
On current predictions, Labor may end up with as few as 20 seats in the 93-seat parliament. The Coalition is also poised to gain control of the upper house.
The Greens look to be the bridesmaids once again, with predictions firming on Labor holding on to the seats of Marrickville and Balmain.
No word on Pauline Hanson's last-ditch bid to sit in the upper house.
Thanks to our reporters out in the field, Imre Salusinszky, James Madden, Amos Aikman, Peter Brent and Tom Dusevic, and to our readers.
New NSW Premier Barry O'Farrell celebrates his win at the Parramatta Leagues Club in western Sydney. Picture: Rohan Kelly
10.01 pm (AEDT) 'I won't let you down'
Rapturous scenes out in Sydney's west as NSW's new Premier Barry O'Farrell battles through the crowd as he makes his way to the stage.
"This is the victory for everyone who wanted to make NSW number one again.
"I am incredibly proud of today's historic and unprecedented result.
"I want to thank all the people of the state for putting their trust in the NSW Liberals and Nationals.
"And I promise we won't let you down."
Kristina Keneally concedes defeat and announces she will step down as Labor leader. Picture: Sam Ruttyn
9.45 pm (AEDT) 'Catastrophic' defeat
Still no sign of Barry, he's really ramping up the tension in the Parramatta Leagues Club.
Outgoing police minister and member for Maroubra, Michael Daley, labels Labor's defeat "catastrophic", as Federal Greens leader Bob Brown predicts the Greens will take three additional NSW upper house seats - David Shoebridge, Jan Barham and Jeremy Buckingham - and claims the party is in a "can win position" in the party's key target lower house seats of Balmain and Marrickville.
Greens candidate for Balmain, Jamie Parker, said the seat was clearly a "three horse race", with the count putting Greens, ALP and Liberal candidates ahead at different times of the night.
The Greens candidate for Marrickville, Fiona Byrne, also claimed her seat was still up for grabs, although the ABC's election computer has had Labor's former deputy premier, Carmel Tebbutt, fairly consistently ahead, with 67 per cent of the vote now counted.
Mr Brown denied the carbon tax debate significantly influenced the outcome of the NSW election.
9.23 pm (AEDT) ALP suffers 'biggest loss ever' in NSW
Barry O'Farrell is due to speak shortly. In the meantime, our resident psephologist Peter Brent (aka Mumble) writes:
At around 5pm today, the word was that the Liberals were anticipating Labor would emerge with 25 seats while Labor’s prognosis was gloomier: about 15.
At the moment it looks like the Libs were slightly closer to the mark. Counting at 8.15pm had the ALP around 26 percent of the primary vote, the Coalition about 51 and the Greens about ten.
Two party preferred it seems about 64 to 36 in the Coalition’s favour, which is what Newspoll and other pollsters most recently suggested. There will be perhaps three independents.
Perhaps one Greens MP, or maybe none. Once again the aggregate Greens vote has come in lower than measured in opinion polls.
A day ago you could get around $4 for a Labor win in each of Balmain and Marrickville. It was believed in particular that Verify Firth was gone for all money in Balmain.
She only won by 3.7 percent against the Greens candidate in 2007. But as a member of the class of ’07 and a subsequent minister, she could be expected to build a personal vote.
The primary vote swing against her looks to be a modest (in the circumstances) seven percent compared with the state-wide one of around 13.
This is the biggest loss the ALP has suffered in NSW. Today many, many people voted Liberal/Nationals for the first time in their lives.
"The Liberal Party has won a clear mandate from the people of NSW, an historic victory! #nswvotes"
@LiberalNSW
9.11 pm (AEDT) Keneally stands down as Labor leader
Keneally's speech had that feeling about it, as the outgoing premier shoulders the blame for the defeat and announces she won't contest the Labor leadership.
Former union leader John Robertson is expected to take over the difficult task of hauling Labor back to respectability.
Keneally says she will remain on the backbench, but for how long remains to be seen.
After delivering her 15-minute concession speech, Ms Keneally leaves the room immediately without talking to the media.
"I believe that the next stage of renewal for our party is best undertaken by a new leader, a new leader who can take up the next phase of our party's renewal, unencumbered.
"A new leader who will have my support, and, if it is any use, my counsel form the back bench."
9.05 pm (AEDT) All over red rover
16 years of Labor rule in NSW rule is officially over as Kristina Keneally takes to the stage in Randwick to concede victory to the Coalition.
"Tonight we acknowledge and accept the verdict of the people of NSW.
"The people of NSW always get it right and so tonight I congratulate Mr O'Farrell and I wish him and the government that he will form all the best."
8.39 pm (AEDT) Greens in with a fighting chance
As the lights are turned off at Greens election night HQ, Federal Greens leader Bob Brown takes to the stage to address the party faithful.
Mr Brown says NSW has witnessed as a "very Tasmanian election", predicting the lower house seats of Balmain and Marrickville will be too close to call until postal votes are counted next week.
Mr Brown said he was taking a lead from Kermit the frog, who said it was "not easy being Green" with a smile on his face.
The Greens went from looking like they would snatch defeat from the jaws of victory back to having a fighting chance, Amos Aikman writes.
Early results suggested the party would miss out on both the NSW lower house seats it hoped to snatch from Labor, but the polls are now showing Greens' candidate Jamie Parker will take the party's number one target - the seat of Balmain.
Balmain is currently held by NSW education minister Verity Firth. The ABC's election computer is putting the greens ahead of Labor by 52 per cent to 48 per cent, on a two-party preferred basis.
The Greens' other target lower house seat, Marrickville, looks a less likely win, with Labor ahead 54 to 46 on a two-party preferred basis.
On the other side of town, James Madden says that Kristina Keneally is expected to arrive at the Randwick Labor Club to make her concession speech within the next ten minutes.
8.30 pm (AEDT) Heartland ripped out
The Labor heartland is gone; very few ALP seats will have a margin over 10 per cent says Luke Foley.
Just look at what's happening along the southwest rail lines; East Hills to the Libs for the first time; Camden has been lost by Labor; Campbelltown has swung massively to the Libs and will go to the wire; Cabramatta Liberal candidate Dai Le could still score a win over Labor MP Nick Lalich after getting 27 per cent swing.
Road congestion and slow rail services into the city are major causes for the voter revolt, Tom Dusevic writes.
8.27 pm (AEDT) Total control
To reiterate Sky News's earlier claim, the Coalition could win as many as 14 of the 21 upper house seats on offer.
That would give Barry O’Farrell control of both houses and render all of Labor’s talk about his mandate, or lack of one, strictly academic.
8.26 pm (AEDT) Fingerpointing begins
Labor MP Paul Pearce concedes that he has lost his seat of Coogee to the Libs.
"They say all political careers end in failure. I guess this is one of them."
The finger-pointing begins with Mr Pearce shifting blame back to the party's former Treasurer.
"I believe if Michael Costa had not embarked on the electricity privatisation, we would not be in the mess we are in today."
8.25 pm (AEDT) "Hey Now, Hey Now, don't dream it's over''
As Crowded House sang, "Hey Now, Hey Now, don't dream it's over'', but sometimes you just have face reality.
Liberal candidate John Sidoti must win the prize for the most cautious and self-deprecating victor on the night.
Approaching 8.00 pm on Channel Seven news, with a massive swing and a 5,000 seat margin in the formerly Labor-held Sydney inner western seat of Drummoyne, Sidoti said "it's not over yet''.
So Seven anchor Chris Bath said to one member of the panel, former ALP strongman Graham Richardson: "Well John, I think if Graham says it's over, it's over. Is it over, Graham?'' "It's over - it was over before it started. You've done better than most, mate.''
8.12 pm (AEDT) Tebbutt to fall?
It's too early to call, but Sky News are suggesting Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt will lose her Marrickville seat to Greens candidate Fiona Byrne.
Worse still, ABC is projecting that Labor could end up with less seats than the Nationals. Now there's talk on Sky about the Coalition gaining control of the upper house too. Make no mistake, this is a bloodbath.
Meanwhile, the NSW Greens have announced federal Greens leader Bob Brown will join local party members at their campaign function at Sydney University later tonight.
Campaign manager Lisa de Leau praised the party faithful, along with Ms Bryne and Jamie Parker (Balmain).
Somewhat cryptically, Mr Parker said it was "our principles, our values and our ethics" that had come through in the Greens' campaign.
This after Ms Byrne received a deserved drubbing for playing fast and loose with the truth over her endorsement of a boycott of goods and services from Israel.
8.04 pm (AEDT) Eyes on the prize
Amid the Coalition celebrations, Liberal Party state director Mark Neeham is trying to keep the troops focused.
He says there will be no prolonged celebrations.
"It's down to the hard work of sorting this state out. After 16 years in opposition there is so much work to do,'' he told Seven Network.
7.57 pm (AEDT) Labor clings on ... to party status
Sky News is calling 53 seats for the coalition, 10 for Labor and two for independents, with 28 seats in doubt. If that prediction plays out, Labor will just cling on to party status in NSW politics.
That said, it's a savage blow handed down to Labor by voters.
7.40 pm (AEDT) Greens defy image
Amos Aikman is at Syndey University where Greens supporters are glued to a three-metre high image of the latest results from Marrickville, projected on to the sloping roof of the Grandstand Bar. So much for earth hour. He writes:
"Perhaps two to three hundred shaggy weekend worriers are stood around in clots, craning upwards, looking in hope for good news of Greens candidate Fiona Byrne's challenge to NSW education minister Verity Firth."
"Although early counting suggests there has been a substantial swing to the Greens of around 8 per cent, it may not be enough. The ABC's computer is predicting Labor will retain the seat, with a final swing of around 5 per cent."
7.39 pm (AEDT) Cut off at the knees
Imre Salusinszky writes:
"It's getting more rowdy here. Latest figures suggest Steve Whan, in Monaro, may be gone. Despite his modest margin of 6.3 per cent, it was one Labor hoped to hold. He's a potential future leader. Labor is being cut off at the knees – many of those who will hold their seats are old and tired."
"A big developing story – the Greens are not looking strong in Balmain or Marrickville. Looks like they won’t live up to the pre-election hype. How many times have we seen this?"
7.36 pm (AEDT) A blow in the heartland
National chief correspondent Tom Dusevic writes:
"The ALP's Luke Foley says things are looking bad in Smithfield, which is absolutely Labor's ethnic and workers' heartland. A telephone message from former PM Bob Hawke hit voters yesterday afternoon warning them about giving Barry O'Farrell a blank cheque."
"With a handful of votes counted, Liberal Andrew Rohan has got a 26 per cent 2pp swing. Ninos Khoshaba put out a campaign brochure about 100 things he had delivered for voters during the term. Not enough obviously."
7.29 pm (AEDT) Thanks for turning up
James Madden is at the Randwick Labor Club in Sydney's east. He writes:
"The mood among the 70-odd Labor supporters is already taking on the feel of a wake. The room is not even half full, despite the expectation that Premier Kristina Keneally will arrive here within the hour. "
"A groan rolls across the room as early counting shows Ms Keneally is trailing in her seat of Heffron."
7.21 pm (AEDT) Light out in Chifley land
As the ABC's Antony Green calls the election in favour of the Coalition, in Bathurst, home of Labor icon Ben Chifley, the light on the hill looks like it has gone out.
Tom Dusevic writes:
"On early counts, Bathurst mayor Paul Toole looks set to break a 30-year drought for the National Party. An almost 50 per cent swing 2pp against Labor from one booth, in a seat where the sitting, three-term member Gerard Martin is retiring."
7.05 pm (AEDT) Keneally's last stand?
Imre Salusinszky writes:
"I've just been told Kristina Keneally’s deputy chief of staff asked has parliamentary officials if the Opposition party room could be ready for a party meeting on Wednesday. To me this suggests KK wants to expedite the anointing of John Robertson as her successor."
"I just texted a senior Labor contact that I am sticking with my prediction of 23 seats. His reply: "I will buy you grange if it happens.""
7.04 pm (AEDT) Richo in mourning
Graham Richardson says he's officially in mourning for the NSW Labor government. "This is a depression. I'm wearing a black tie, and this very dark suit. I'm in mourning officially, already,'' the former Labor powerbroker told the Seven Network.
"I suspect 14 or 15 seats is where we'll finish up,'' Mr Richardson said. "But Labor could, it could get to 20 if everything went really well, but I doubt it very much.''
Asked when he could call the election result, Mr Richardson said: "Now.''
6.55pm (AEDT) Tell her she's dreaming
Imre Salusinszky writes:
"We're watching the ABC broadcast – can't believe Gladys Berejiklian is still spinning the "we're just playing it one game at a time" line. Come on woman! You’ve iced it!"
6.53 pm (AEDT) State plunges into darkness
The lights aren't only going off for Labor tonight. It's Earth Hour in Sydney tonight, and the NSW Greens will be watching the results by candlelight from 8.30pm in a bar at the University of Sydney.
"There'll be a lovely ambience for an hour," said NSW upper house candidate David Shoebridge.
6.42 pm (AEDT) Hanson's final tilt
Former One Nation leader Pauline Hanson says she won't stand for parliament again if she doesn't win tonight.
Ms Hanson's tilt at the upper house is the latest in a series of failed bids to become a state MP.
When Ms Hanson announced her candidacy for the NSW upper house she said she had only done so because people had asked her to run for political office again.
"If I don't win the election, well then I'll be disappointed but I'm not going to be devastated, and I'll move on with my life,'' she told Seven News. "This will be the last time that I stand."
6.35 pm AEDT Coalition in party mode in Parramatta
NSW political reporter Imre Saluszinsky writes:
"I'm at the Liberal Party function at Parramatta, in western Sydney. In yet another clever piece of symbolism, Barry O’Farrell has shunned the usual CBD shindig.
"A senior Liberal Party official just told me he found the polling places he visited today "strangely quiet": people weren't even picking up how-to-vote cards; they had made up their minds. The Young Libs are in their party gear. This isn't going to be pretty."
6.19 pm (AEDT) Tenuous argument of the night
Interesting theory from Joe Tripodi on Sky News, blaming media coverage for the rout expected to be handed to Labor. Bruce Hawker backs his stance. Hmmm... that's going to fly.
"Did Joe Tripodi and Bruce Hawker just blame the media or have I picked up a heroin habit?"
6.03 pm (AEDT) Not long now...
The counting of votes in the NSW election is under way with the winner likely to be known in around an hour.
The NSW Electoral Commission is due to begin posting the initial results at 6.30pm.
To recap, Sky News predicted a swing of 21 per cent against Labor, which would leave the party with less than 15 seats in the lower house, and the coalition with 70 or more. Newspoll earlier today predicted that Labor will win 18 to 19 seats as a maximum.
Labor needs to win 10 seats to retain party status.
The full extent of the rout against Labor should become clearer by 8pm.
Mr O'Farrell is heading to the Parramatta Leagues Club in Sydney's west for the Coalition party, which kicks off at 6.30pm.
If all goes as expected, he will wait for Premier Kristina Keneally to concede defeat at Labor's function at the Randwick Labor Club, in Sydney's east.
The Greens, which could pick up the two Labor Sydney seats of Balmain and Marrickville, will hold their function at the Bruce Williams Pavilion at the University of Sydney cricket ground.
6.00 pm (AEDT) Time for a change
As the polls close, it might be an ideal time update the NSW Premier's website...
5.44 pm (AEDT) Labor in for a rough night
Federal Labor MP Tony Burke agrees NSW Labor is in for a rough night after viewing the Sky News exit poll numbers.
"You could have a quarter of the swing in that exit poll and you'd have a change of government,'' he said on Sky News.
But Burke also said the two-party preferred vote may be an overestimate.
"The exit poll, I think, also probably overestimates the extent to which people preference,'' Mr Burke said. "One of the things which increasingly happens is every time in a NSW election, now, is people only vote one - it's not compulsory preferential.
"So the shift in the two-party preferred that's been described, I suspect, is an overestimate.''
5.37 pm (AEDT) The end is nigh...
The polls are about close and Barry O'Farrell is likely to end up smiling tonight, but the final day of the campaign wasn't all smooth sailing. He began the day on the Central Coast, but when a 50-metre-long, 45-tonne piece of concrete fell off a truck on a major highway, it derailed the Opposition Leader's plans to drive back to Sydney to vote. He had to catch a train instead.
Kristina Keneally began the day needing all the votes she could get, but it emerged she couldn't even vote for herself. A boundary change in her Sydney-based seat of Heffron meant she ended up casting her ballot for colleague Michael Daley instead.
Sky News's exit poll is sugegsting the swing against Labor is 21 per cent. Retiring Labor MP Joe Tripodi says that while the party's prospects in western Sydney were very bad, but there was some hope. "It's still very bad in western Sydney, don't get me wrong but ... a lot of the local incumbent MPs have been able to keep their base and convince their local constituencies to support them gives some hope to the party to hold some of those western Sydney seats,'' he said.
The poll puts the primary vote at 52 per cent for the Coalition, 27 per cent for Labor, 9 per cent for the Greens and 11 per cent for other parties.
Newspoll's John Armitage says that exit poll was carried out in 19 Labor heartland seats and warns the official numbers are likely to be worse state-wide.
Ever the optimist, The Australian's Peter van Onselen says that Labor may still be able field a cricket team in the lower house.
Gillard urges regrowth, reform
JULIA Gillard has urged NSW Labor to learn from its recent election defeat and take on reforms to improve its candidate selection process.
Warrant issued for Hanson’s star witness
DOUBTS have emerged about the existence of the star witness in Pauline Hanson's appeal against her loss in the NSW upper house election.