Labor must hold its own in the regions

Once, Melbourne's eastern suburbs decided Victorian elections, but no more

TONIGHT when the Labor faithful gather at the Broadmeadows Town Hall in the party's heartland and the true-blue Liberals meet in their equivalent at the Sofitel Hotel in Melbourne, all eyes will be on parts of Victoria many kilometres away.

For this state election will be won and lost in the regions and the outer eastern suburbs.

Ted Baillieu's Liberal-Nationals Coalition needs 13 seats or a 6.5 per cent swing to wrest government away from Labor and Premier John Brumby, who are aiming for a record fourth term if voters decide today to again return them to power.

Traditionally, Victoria's elections have always been determined in the eastern suburbs. That's where the bellwether seat of Mitcham lies and has always been an indicator of who gains government.

This election may change that. Since 1999, when Jeff Kennett and his Liberal government were surprisingly swept from power, the political game has shifted.

One of the keys to that shock Labor victory, under the helm of Steve Bracks, was the party's success in the regional cities.

Labor was able to tap into rural anger against Kennett -- who once described the bush as "the toenails" of the state -- and gain seats such as Bendigo East, Ballarat East, Ballarat West and Ripon.

If Labor can hold on to these seats, as well as Bendigo West, Geelong and South Barwon, it can pretty much stop the Coalition from gaining government.

"The key is the regions," ABC electoral analyst Antony Green says. 'If Labor holds them, they will hold government."

Labor strategists say their eyes will be fixed firmly on the seats of Bendigo East and South Barwon early on in the election count.

The seat of Bendigo East is held by Regional Development Minister Jacinta Allan by 5.4 per cent.

A favourite of Brumby, and touted as the next up-and-comer, Allan has had her job made more difficult by the decision by the Greens not to preference Labor in her seat in retaliation for Labor preferencing Country Alliance in key upper-house seats.

Labor's concerns over this seat has shown throughout the election, with Brumby choosing to officially launch Labor's campaign in Bendigo with Julia Gillard, as well as dropping by to announce an arts grant here or a jobs policy there during the past three weeks.

The electorate of South Barwon is on a margin of 2.9 per cent and is held by Labor MP Michael Crutchfield, who is not so popular among his sea-change constituents because of some planning and infrastructure disputes.

These two seats represent the most at-risk regional electorates for Labor and they have to be reclaimed by the Coalition if it wants to win government.

If Bendigo East and South Barwon fall to the opposition and there is an apparent swing in the bush, then Brumby may start to panic.

"If these go, then the evening is not going to be over by 9pm, that's for sure," one Labor insider says.

On the flip side, if Labor manages to hold these regional marginals, then it will become very difficult for the Liberals to win its 13-seat majority.

As the battle over the bush unfolds through the night, the next electoral frontier is the eastern suburbs. This was traditionally Liberal heartland and it must become blue-ribbon territory once again if the Coalition has any chance of winning government.

The importance of the eastern suburbs has been apparent in Baillieu's campaign.

He has spent the better part of the past 3 1/2 weeks in this part of Melbourne.

His broader policies are also targeting key issues that are gaining traction in the east, such as law and order problems, public transport woes and the cost of living.

The electorates of Mount Waverley, Gembrook, Forest Hill and Mitcham are all held by Labor on less than 2 per cent.

To make matters worse for Brumby, the seat of Gembrook -- on .7 per cent -- does not even have Greens preferences thanks to the unhappy deal between the two parties.

"If the Liberals don't win Gembrook, you can forgot it and all go home," Monash University political lecturer Nick Economou says. "The game is over."

The next seat the Liberals must win is Burwood.

The former seat of Kennett, also in the eastern suburbs, it is held by Gaming Minister Tony Robinson on a 3.8 per cent margin. Again, if the opposition cannot win this seat, power becomes one step further out of their reach.

The other group of seats that worries Labor strategists, as they could complicate the party's re-election chances, is what they call the sandbelt, electorates that go up Port Phillip Bay from Frankston, Carrum, Mordialloc to Bentleigh.

The seat of Mordialloc is on a margin of 3.6 per cent and, insiders believe, if this goes to the Liberals it could spell disaster for the surrounding seats.

With a margin of 6.8 per cent, if the Liberals can take Carrum, this would cause the Brumby government serious headaches.

The final cluster of seats to watch tonight is the inner city. But the buzz over these seats has definitely died down.

Just two weeks ago, everyone was talking about how this area would be the next part of the "Green tide" that was sweeping the nation.

After Greens candidate Adam Bandt won the federal seat of Melbourne, it looked quite possible his Victorian counterparts might take the seats of Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote, and potentially even hold the balance of power.

That dream died when the Liberal Party made the controversial decision to preference its arch enemy, Labor, over the Greens.

As a result, the third party is really in contention only for the seat of Melbourne and maybe Brunswick.

This controversial move by the Liberals also would have had Labor dancing in the streets as it will be easier for Brumby to retain his majority given the government will most likely hold these four seats.

Economou believes the Greens also may come into play in the seat of Prahran.

Held by Labor by only 3.8 per cent, there is a strong possibility that Liberal candidate Clem Newton-Brown may come first in the polling and the Greens candidate Meni Christofakis second. The preference deal means that if the Greens come second, they may leapfrog the Liberals, thanks to Labor preferences.

But despite the first half of the campaign being dominated by the emergence of the Greens, Labor's fight for the inner city and the public and private angst over preference negotiations, today's electoral contest will unfold in the regions.

"It's all about Ripon, the Ballarats and the Bendigos," one Liberal strategist says. "If the swing is on there, we will win."

Additional reporting: Ally Forward