Jim Bacon's widow turns on David Bartlett

TASMANIAN Premier David Bartlett has conceded he could lose his seat in Saturday's election

TASMANIAN Premier David Bartlett has conceded he could lose his seat in Saturday's election, as the widow of his former mentor, Jim Bacon, backed a rival candidate.

The state's Hare Clark system of proportional representation can be brutal, pitting mate against mate, and occasionally ending the career of high-profile MPs.

In the Hobart-based electorate of Denison, the system threatens to do just that. The latest opinion poll, published by The Sunday Examiner, suggests Labor would drop from its current three seats in Denison to just one (Tasmania's lower house has five electorates, each returning five MPs).

The poll says that one Labor MP will be Scott Bacon, a 32-year-old economist whose father, the late Jim Bacon, was premier from 1998 to 2004.

According to the poll, Mr Bacon would be elected as Labor's only Denison MP, and Mr Bartlett -- along with fellow cabinet members and sitting Denison MPs Lisa Singh and Graeme Sturges -- would be dumped.

Even if Labor holds two of its three Denison seats, a Bacon win would mean curtains for Mr Bartlett or one of his ministers.

The ALP is powerless to direct Labor voters, with how-to-vote cards outlawed and names rotated on ballot papers to ensure equality among candidates.

Mr Bartlett initially played down the risk to his seat, which he secured on a recount to replace his mentor, Jim Bacon, who resigned due to lung cancer in 2004.

But asked by The Australian yesterday whether he was concerned about losing his seat, Mr Bartlett said: "`I don't take this job for granted. I don't expect it to fall into my lap.

"I have worked hard to get this job, and I want this job for the future, because I know we have a clear plan to improve the lives of all Tasmanians."

Bacon's widow, Honey, has enthusiastically endorsed her stepson Scott, and appears with him at campaign functions.

She told The Australian she had no hesitation in doing so, even if the result meant the loss of Mr Bartlett, a former close family friend, or one of his ministers.

"I've never had any problem endorsing Scott -- whatever happens -- because I think he is our kind of future," she said.

"I get a lot of feedback from a lot of people, and what they're telling me is that Scott is going to win that seat."

Scott Bacon was unapologetic about out-polling Mr Bartlett and two senior ministers. "It just goes to show I've worked hard for six months and I have to work hard for the last five days," he said.

"I think I've shown throughout the campaign I'm 100 per cent committed to representing the people of Denison. I've been door-knocking since August, I've quit my job and I've sold my house to finance the campaign."

Mr Bartlett, trying to defy the polls and continue the Labor winning streak begun by Bacon in 1998, has been campaigning statewide, leaving him little time to defend his position in Denison.

The Australian will publish an exclusive Newspoll this week.