Snap election would catch Coalition with its pants down

The Coalition is yet to preselect candidates in 19 of Labor’s top 20 most marginal seats.

Bob Hawke beat Bill Hayden for the party leadership and led Labor to victory.

The Coalition is yet to preselect candidates in 19 of Labor’s top 20 most marginal seats.

The clear demonstration of the Liberals’ lack of preparation for the next federal election contrasts with the ALP’s declaration of candidates in all 20 of the government’s most marginal seats.

Amid speculation leadership turmoil could spark an early election, The Australian has confirmed that Phillip Thompson — the LNP’s candidate for Labor MP Cathy O’Toole’s ultra-marginal Townsville seat of Herbert — is the only Coalition candidate who has so far been named in any of Labor’s 20 most marginal seats.

In contrast, Labor has named its contenders in all 20 seats held by the government by less than a 4 per cent margin, with some having campaigned alongside Opposition Leader Bill Shorten during visits to their seats months ago.

Neither Labor nor the Liberals have yet named candidates for the NSW seat of Lindsay, which is being vacated by embattled MP Emma Husar, although Liberal nominations are due to close this week.

As Peter Dutton continues his campaign to secure the numbers to roll Malcolm Turnbull, analysis of leadership changes more than halfway between elections shows parties that changed leaders were more likely than not to win the next election.

Labor’s changes from Simon Crean to Mark Latham in 2003, and Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd in 2013 and the Coalition’s change from Malcolm Turnbull to Tony Abbott in 2009 were followed by election losses.

However, the 1983 change from Bill Hayden to Bob Hawke, the 1991 change from Bob Hawke to Paul Keating, the 1995 change from Alexander Downer to John Howard, the 2006 change from Kim Beazley to Mr Rudd, the 2010 change from Mr Rudd to Ms Gillard and the 2015 change from Mr Abbott to Mr Turnbull were all followed by election wins.

A spokeswoman for Mr Shorten confirmed Labor was “ready for a campaign any day”.

“This month we had a full trial of our campaign headquarters. Our campaign structure and team has been set up,” she said.

The Australian understands Labor has also moved in ­recent weeks to finalise the development of the policies it will take to the next election. An election could theoretically be called at any point and take place a minimum of 33 days after the Prime Minister visits the Governor-General and writs are ­issued.

While a half-Senate election must be held by May 18, a House of Representatives election does not have to take place until November 2, 2019 — leaving open the small possibility that the two could be held separately.

The soonest possible date for a federal election is September 29. However, this coincides with AFL grand final day. The next two possible dates — October 6 and 13 — fall during school holidays.

A late October election is considered most likely, should the leader opt for an early poll.

Dates in November this year and March next year could clash with state elections, in which case the state polls would be moved. “There is a mechanism available under NSW law … for moving the state election if the commonwealth government did choose 23 March, 2018,” a NSW Electoral Commission spokesman said.