Shine comes off Julia Gillard as Tony Abbott rises

NEWSPOLL'S latest ratings show Julia Gillard is a positive influence on Labor's vote, while Tony Abbott is a drag on the Coalition.

Satisfaction

NEWSPOLL'S latest ratings show Julia Gillard is a positive influence on Labor's vote, while Tony Abbott is a drag on the Coalition.

The Prime Minister's net satisfaction rating sits at positive four, the Opposition Leader's at negative six.

But the trend from the beginning of the campaign has seen Abbott's standing in the eyes of voters improve (by nine points) while Gillard's has slumped by 15 points. It is a case of Abbott exceeding expectations with his performance so far and Gillard falling short of expectations. Newspoll was conducted before Sunday night's leaders' debate, in which there was a universal view that Abbott exceeded expectations, although commentators were split on who won. He will be hoping that provides a platform for more improvements over the next week.

The reason the shine continues to come off Gillard is because few, if any, of us can work out what she stands for.

Her image is so controlled, you forget who she was before she assumed the leadership (if not the responsibility that goes with it.

For someone who said when she became Prime Minister that she wanted to let Australians get to know her before going to the polls, Gillard hasn't done a very good job so far. Calling her image fake gives it more authenticity than it deserves. Is it any wonder Gillard's satisfaction rating tumbled after the first full week of the campaign?

The worry for Labor is that, even if it wins the election, Gillard might start a second term as damaged goods.

Despite Gillard's faltering, the opposition also has a problem. It needs to do more than highlight government failings in its first term, Liberals don't have a mortgage on incumbency. They need to build a constructive narrative. Glib promises to stop the boats, cap immigration and pay back debt simply won't cut it. It's a big deal to kick out a one-term government.

Coalition attack ads are a necessary part of campaigning. But the ads shouldn't feature Abbott personally. His message needs to be a positive alternative, otherwise he will never win female voters who doubt his worth.

If the Coalition goes on as it is now it will get a protest vote, but without the added support that comes from people shifting their votes over to positive messages.