Newspoll: ‘Yes’ vote losing ground

Australians have shifted ground on same-sex marriage in an early success for the No campaign.

Labor deputy leader Tanya Plibersek said voter turnout would be crucial and apathy could lead to defeat for those who want reform.

Australians have shifted ground on same-sex marriage in an early success for the No campaign, with support for change falling from 63 to 57 per cent as an argument erupts over advertising tactics.

The No campaign has ­increased its support from 30 to 34 per cent over the past month after raising doubts over the divisive reform, signalling its potential to mobilise voters to stage a surprise victory in the national postal survey.

NEWSPOLL: Turnbull loses ground to Shorten, Coalition slips to another low

Voters strongly back laws to guarantee religious freedom in any change to traditional marriage, with concerns about the issue growing among Coalition voters in the wake of warnings from former prime ministers John Howard and Tony Abbott.

A special Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, ­reveals a significant fall in support for same-sex marriage among ­Coalition voters, slipping from 55 to 47 per cent after millions of households received their voting papers.

The push for change to the Marriage Act has also lost ground among Labor voters, down from 75 to 70 per cent over four weeks, but has increased among Greens voters from 82 to 85 per cent.

Support for change has fallen hardest among One Nation voters, down from 50 to 35 per cent after party leader Pauline Hanson lashed the postal survey for not being a “true” vote and called ­instead for the issue to be decided at the next election.

The findings raise the prospect of a narrow outcome when the postal survey results are revealed on November 15, highlighting the importance of voter turnout and showing the No side has gained an edge in the opening stage of the public campaign.

Labor deputy leader Tanya Plibersek said voter turnout would be crucial and apathy could lead to defeat for those who want reform.

“I think that the biggest threat to the Yes campaign’s success is people assuming that this is in the bag because they know that a ­majority of Australians support marriage equality and they think — well, my vote won’t matter,” she said.

Tasmanian Liberal senator Eric Abetz stepped up the warnings over religious freedom yesterday by warning of consequences for parental rights, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of conscience and sex education in schools if the law was changed.

In a key message from the No campaign, Senator Abetz warned that the likely bill to authorise same-sex marriage offered “very limited” protections for freedom of religion and none of the wider safeguards he sought.

But Liberal National Party leader and Queensland Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls revealed he had voted Yes after discussing the issue with his wife and three teenage children.

Mr Nicholls said he came from a “traditional background” but cited St Paul’s first letter to the ­Corinthians as one of the reasons he voted in favour of marriage equality. “He says faith, hope, love, and the greatest of these is love — and on that basis I voted Yes,” Mr Nicholls said.

The special Newspoll reveals that 15 per cent of voters have ­already cast their ballots while another 67 per cent say they will “definitely” vote and 7 per cent will “probably” do so by the deadline of November 7. With millions of Australians yet to vote, the outcome could be heavily influenced by advertising tactics on either side amid an argument over the Yes campaign’s decision to send a text message to people on Saturday without their approval.

Victorian state MP Rachel Carling-Jenkins, a member of the Australian Conservatives, said the text message was “invasive” and “deceptive” but Equality Campaign leader Alex Greenwich said his side would use “every resource available” to get people to vote Yes.

The Newspoll results were based on responses from 1695 voters from Thursday to Sunday and have a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points. The survey period included the text messages and significant news coverage of Hobart anarchist Astro Labe, who was charged with headbutting Mr Abbott but denied he was motivated by the marriage debate. The attack was condemned by Yes and No campaigners. Support for change declined among every age group except those aged from 18 to 34, a group where 70 per cent favour marriage equality.

Australians aged from 35 to 49 scaled back their support from 64 to 56 per cent over the four weeks, while those aged from 50 to 64 cut their support from 64 to 51 per cent and those over 65 reduced their support from 49 to 44 per cent.

Asked if parliament should provide legal guarantees for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if same-sex marriage were legislated, 62 per cent of voters agreed, 18 per cent disagreed, and 20 per cent were uncommitted.

The national results on this question were unchanged from a Newspoll published on August 21 but opinions have shifted among key voting groups, with concerns growing among Coalition supporters. One month ago, support for the legal guarantees was strongest among Labor voters on 68 per cent, followed by One Nation voters on 64 per cent, Coalition supporters on 59 per cent and Greens voters on 58 per cent.

The latest poll reveals support for the guarantees has fallen among Labor voters to 60 per cent, compared to One Nation voters on 59 per cent, Coalition supporters on 65 per cent and Greens voters on 61 per cent.

The findings send a warning to Mr Turnbull to act on fears among the government’s base after he said he believed “even more strongly” in freedom of religion than in same-sex marriage. “Religious freedom is fundamental and it will be protected in any bill that emerges from this parliament,” he said on September 15.