Queensland election: Annastacia Palaszczuk has momentum

One Nation state leader Steve Dickson on the Sunshine Coast yesterday following the election announcement. Picture: Warren Lynam

The chaos of Australian politics will impact directly on the Queensland election outcome. Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls will certainly not want Malcolm Turnbull campaigning for the LNP, while One Nation has been given a boost by the entry of former senator Malcolm Roberts in the state seat of Ipswich.

Momentum is everything in politics, especially in an election campaign. If a leader has it, he or she can withstand the campaign bumps and ride to victory. Without it, a leader dies the cuts of a thousand political deaths.

So who has it in the Queensland election campaign and who needs to desperately find it?

Three months ago I thought Nicholls would scrape over the line to claim the premiership with the support of a handful of One Nation members.

That was because, post-mining, regional Queensland was suffering the pains of job losses and job insecurity. Regional Queenslanders felt abandoned by both major parties and were angry. One Nation became more than a protest vote; it became their voice.

Then along came the ever-­maturing Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, who reached out to Queenslanders with her homely honesty and determination. She has the warmth of everyone’s favourite aunt and the determination of the granddaughter of a man who survived the Nazi slave labour camps of World War II — a dynamic combination.

She connected with Queenslanders with her directness and her willingness to front public meetings and take questions from even the most hostile of citizens as she “governed from the regions”.

In doing so she grabbed the campaign momentum, and if she keeps it her government may just get over the line with a small ­majority. It is still too early to tell.

So how will Labor campaign? It will focus on the best thing going for the government — Palaszczuk. But it will also target Nicholls in a negative campaign onslaught. Bill Shorten and key federal Labor frontbenchers will be welcomed with open arms to provide a stark contrast to the federal government’s instability.

How should the LNP campaign? First, run a positive advertising campaign on who is the real Tim Nicholls and what he stands for. This would have blunted Labor’s attack had it been done two months ago and it may be too late now.

Nevertheless, the LNP has to stop Labor defining Nicholls, or the LNP is in for a rough election campaign and result.

Second, the LNP has to work out its relationship with One ­Nation and be upfront about it. The LNP cannot win without One Nation preferences. To deny that is just a nonsense. Labor has said it will not govern with the support of One Nation; the LNP, on the other hand, can’t govern without it.

This means saying it will put One Nation leader Steve Dickson last in his seat makes no sense. It can only be described as a General Custer moment. Third, the LNP has to highlight its team to demonstrate it is ready to govern.

Finally, Nicholls needs to work out his relationship with my co-commentator and former premier Campbell Newman. He cannot deny his role in the Newman government and has to be clear on his policies on privatisation. This is fertile ground for Labor exploitation. Leaders who try to deny where they came from end up in a screaming heap. History is littered with them.

Notwithstanding all this, this election is too close to call and anything could happen. But it is Labor that currently has the momentum. Nicholls has to change that if he is to win.

Peter Beattie was the premier of Queensland for the Australian Labor Party from 1998 to 2007.

Watch Beattie and Newman on Sky News.