Annastacia Palaszczuk no longer the accidental Premier

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk

Annastacia Palaszczuk will become the first woman in Australian history to win government from opposition and then lead her government to re-election.

Another first for Queensland. She can no longer be called the “accidental Premier”.

While the result is still close, I believe Labor will get across the line and form government. This is a re-run of the 1998 election when it took several days before the result in a number of seats was known and two weeks before my government could be sworn in.

This election produced some clear outcomes with national as well as state ramifications.

First, there is still a large degree of disenchantment with the major parties reflected in the vote for One Nation, the Greens and independents. It was only the warmth and genuineness of Palaszczuk that kept Labor in the contest. Make no mistake, this will be a Palaszczuk victory.

Second, the Labor organisation led by ALP state secretary Evan Moorhead is streets ahead of the LNP on the ground and on television, resulting in two key differences between the campaigns. These will have ramifications at the next federal election.

The ALP simply outgunned the LNP on paid advertising. Labor’s advertising was strategic, hard-hitting and effective.

Rarely have I seen an effective negative ad run for a whole campaign. This is what Labor did and it worked.

In contrast, the LNP ads were woolly and toothless and were further undermined by the ALP having more frequency and better placements.

It was as if the LNP campaign was caught by surprise when the poll was called. The LNP appeared to be short of ad placements, and therefore money, raising the question as to whether the business community failed to support the LNP financially.

Third, while One Nation polled well in a number of areas, it failed to convert that vote into seats. Its seat tally was well short of that which Pauline Hanson claimed before the poll.

One Nation lost its state leader, Steve Dickson, and heir apparent Jim Savage, who failed in Lockyer. That’s the party’s problem: its only spokesperson is Hanson, and that is a growing weakness.

Unless One Nation can develop new, articulate future leadership it will eventually wither on the vine and its supporters will either drift back to the major parties or turn to Cory Bernardi’s party. Remember, Queensland is the birthplace of One Nation.

What are the federal ramifications? This was an election fought on state issues. Malcolm Turnbull made only one appearance in the campaign, at the LNP campaign launch.

Nevertheless, it shows the conservative vote in Queensland is hopelessly divided and that will flow over to the next federal election.

If it does, the Turnbull government will lose office in Queensland alone. The real challenge for the federal government is whether it changes leader or goes to defeat with the current Prime Minister.

By directing its preferences against most sitting members, One Nation helped elect a number of Labor and LNP members. In doing so, it proved it is not just a lackey for the LNP.

In Queensland we are seeing the future trends of politics in Australia and they are ugly for the LNP and conservative politics.

Finally, the election had some interesting moments. For example, LNP preferences saved Deputy Premier Jackie Trad from defeat by the Greens in South Brisbane; the Greens have a chance in Maiwar of winning their first seat in state parliament; the LNP’s primary vote dropped well below that achieved by Campbell Newman in the 2015 election and the Gold Coast, with the seats of Gaven and Bonney going to Labor, was kingmaker.

Peter Beattie was Labor premier of Queensland from 1998-2007.