Population turning point: Morrison rolls out rail, migrant strategy

Scott Morrison will progress plans for fast-rail links and cut the annual migration intake by 120,000 over the next four years.

Scott Morrison in Netherby, Adelaide, yesterday. Picture: AAP

Scott Morrison will progress plans for fast-rail links between the nation’s three biggest cities and their regions and cut the annual migration intake by 120,000 over the next four years in a sweeping decentralisation blueprint to ease crippling congestion in Sydney and Melbourne.

As revealed by The Australian, restrictions will also be placed on the number of permanent migrant­ settlements in the major capitals, along with incentives to drive foreign students into the ­regions as part of the first comprehensive policy to address unchecked population growth over the past decade.

The Prime Minister will today claim that the government’s population plan marks a “turning point” in Australia’s policy respon­se and there would be no fiscal or economic impact on the budget over the short term because­ of the lower intake.

Mr Morrison will also reassure business that the lower total numbers will not have an impact on their job needs, with an increase in employer-sponsored places.

The states and territories would be required to drive ­population management under agreements with the commonwealth while a new arm of Treasury would be established to co-ordinate a national approach.

The Australian understands that the fast-rail plan will be a feat­ure of the government’s budget and election infrastructure announcements, with further funding likely to go towards three projects under consideration.

They include fast-rail links between Melbourne and Shepparton, Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast and Sydney and Newcastle.

This would be in addition to the $75 billion nationwide infrastructure plan already announced and under way.

As revealed in The Australian yesterday, the main policy driver for managing population growth will be a cap on the migration ­intake, which will be set at 160,000 over the budget forward ­estimates.

While it will confirm the current­ trajectory that saw last year’s intake reduced by roughly 20,000 to 163,000 after tougher vetting processes were introduced by Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, it marks a 15 per cent cut to Labor’s former 190,000 target and is the lowest intake in more than a decade

The Australian understands that several cabinet ministers, including­ Mr Morrison, had canvassed a figure of 155,000 a year, but after several meetings of the expenditure review committee of cabinet, it was resolved that the budget could not afford a deeper cut in light of weaker economic growth.

In a further shift in immig­ration policy, two new priority visa classes will require 23,000 independ­ent skilled workers, almost­ one-quarter of the current cohort, to settle in regional areas before being granted access to permanent residency.

This will triple the number of workers granted regional visas under the current system and exten­d the requirement from two years to three.

The current mix in the total migration intake will be maintained, with 70 per cent of the 160,000 sourced from the skilled-worker stream and 30 per cent in the family stream, which includes foreign-born spouses.

International students, who now number more than 500,000, would be offered an extra year of temporary residency in Australia if they study in regional institutions and $15,000 scholarships would be offered to up to 1000 new overseas students to study in the bush.

From this revised intake, ­employer-sponsored skilled visa places would increase from 35,528 in 2017-18 to 39,000 in 2019-20, with the cuts coming from the independent skilled stream.

No changes would be made to the family stream, with 47,732 ­places for the 2019-20 year.

Bill Shorten welcomed the overall reduction, but said it was only 1 per cent lower than last year.

The Opposition Leader questioned the timing of the announcemen­t in light of the Christchurch terrorist attack.

The Australian has confirmed that Mr Morrison was due to announce­ the policy on Monday but delayed it because of sensitiv­ities surrounding the massacre.

The new immigration settings will deal with the immediate issue of rapid population growth in Sydney and Melbourne, where up to 90 per cent of arrivals settle, but the infrastructure plan will be designed­ to ease associated congestio­n issues in both capitals, which the Coalition and Labor ­acknowledge has become a significa­nt productivity drag and a hot-button political issue.

The Prime Minister will claim that, while addressing congestion in the capital cities, the policy will also address calls for more skilled workers in cities such as Adelaide, with an estimated 47,000 job ­vacancies in regional Australia.

The architect of the policy, Infrastruct­ure Minister Alan Tudge, warned last year of the increasin­g congestion issue with Melbourne, Sydney and southeast Queensland growing up to 50 per cent faster than the rest of the country over the past 10 years.

He will pitch the policy as a congestion issue rather than an argument over immigration, claiming that migration is integral to Australia’s economic prosperity and “social fabric”.

“I want Australians to spend less time in traffic and more time with their families and being able to get on site or get to work sooner and safer,” Mr Morrison will say today.

“I want them to be able to ­access reliable public transport that makes our cities more live­able and convenient.

“Meanwhile, I know we have rural and regional communities that have plans and opportunities to grow their shires, who are looking for more people to come and settle in their districts, to fill jobs, inject more life into their towns and shore up important education and health services.

“Our plan manages population growth by adopting well-targeted, responsible, and sustainable immigratio­n policies.”

Mr Morrison will reinforce how migrants are an invaluable part of Australia’s economic and social fabric: “Our economic strength is supported by a successful migration program that brings skilled people of working age.

“Managing population growth isn’t just about the migration intak­e. It’s about infrastructure, it’s about city and regional deals, it’s about our congestion-busting projects … it’s about funding the essential services Australians rely on and providing key skills to rural and regional areas.

“Our plan marks a turning point in the way population is treated across government, with a move to greater collaboration, transparency and longer-term planning.”

The Migration Council Australia said the drop in the intake would undermine the labour market­ and business confidence.

Chief executive Carla Wilshire said the migration program “adds significantly to our GDP and provide­s an underlying level of economic growth critical for our long-term economic outlook”.

Modelling commissioned by the council in 2015 found an intak­e of 190,000 would lead to a 5.9 per cent gain in GDP per capita by 2050, she said.