Polling shows Wentworth winnable with Liberal woman candidate

Internal polling shows the Coalition’s primary vote in the blue-ribbon seat vacated by Malcolm Turnbull has crashed.

 

Scott Morrison faces losing his parliamentary majority unless the Liberals choose a female can­didate for the Wentworth by-election, according to private polling showing the government’s primary vote has crashed to 39 per cent in the blue-ribbon seat vacated by ­Malcolm Turnbull.

The polling, taken at the weekend and paid for by early Liberal frontrunner Andrew Bragg, showed that a female candidate would boost the Liberal vote in the seat by 4 per cent.

Mr Turnbull polled 62 per cent in Wentworth at the 2016 election but the Liberals face a backlash over his dumping as prime minister, putting the Coalition’s one-seat majority in jeopardy.

MARGIN CALL: Rumour, innuendo and Wentworth

JANET ALBRECHTSEN: Bragg’s exit sexist, condescending

Ahead of the Liberal preselection decision on Thursday, Mr Bragg yesterday pulled out of the seat, claiming he conducted the polling because he had learned Scott Morrison wanted a woman candidate to run.

Andrew Bragg has pulled out of the Wentworth pre-selection race to make way for a woman to run in the seat.@chriskkenny: I reckon there's a lot more to this story than meets the eye.

MORE: https://t.co/9HUBaTtqr5 #Credlin pic.twitter.com/QthT9C4Q5I

— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) September 10, 2018

Mr Bragg’s polling had high-profile doctor Kerryn Phelps, who is expected to run as an independent, at 20 per cent, and Labor, who has Tim Murray as its candidate, on 25 per cent.

Should a woman run for the seat, the polling showed the Liberal primary vote would rise to 43 per cent, likely to be enough to hold the seat. Liberal sources yesterday said the polling mimicked party polling.

The Prime Minister will ­address the Coalition party room today for the first time since being elected Liberal leader last month and will tell MPs it is time for a “no-nonsense” approach.

He is expected to call for a “mission-focused” attitude with an end to the “distractions”.

Mr Morrison survived an ­attempt by Labor yesterday to test the government’s numbers on the floor of parliament as it returned for the first time since the leadership spill.

The new cabinet met last night, officially signing the ­national ­energy guarantee’s death warrant, confirming the scrapping of legislation to ratify the Paris emissions reduction targets.

As Mr Morrison prepares for a fight to hold on to Wentworth, The Australian can reveal that membership of the Liberal Nat­ional Party in Queensland is rising four times faster than the usual rate following Mr Turnbull’s exit. Victorian Liberal Party officials also reported an increase in membership but more significantly, increased donor interest.

A party source said wealthy ­individual donors who had abandoned the party had approached officials wanting to become financial contributors again.

Andrew Bragg has stood down from the Liberal preselection in the seat of Wentworth.

LNP president Gary Spence said “there’s been a surge of new members over the last couple of weeks … The membership is ­ener­gised and looking forward to supporting the Morrison gov­ernment as it works towards the next ­federal election.”

Pushing ahead with its new legislative agenda, the Morrison government will move today to ­resume debate on a crucial amendment to its bill to expand the cashless welfare card trials to Queensland, and is close to winning crossbench support.

Former Woollahra deputy mayor Catherine O’Regan and Woollahra councillor Mary-Lou Jarvis have put their names forward for Liberal preselection in Wentworth. Liberal moderates sources said last night that Ms O’Regan would win the preselection.

Despite this, moderates faction powerbrokers Trent Zimmerman and Matt Kean are understood to be fighting a rearguard action in favour of former Australian ambassador to Israel Dave Sharma.

The polling showing a woman would fare better in Wentworth for the Liberals comes as a former minister backed installing a quota system to boost female parliamentary representation in Liberal ranks and Victorian party president Michael Kroger said the party’s executive could be forced to intervene to put more women in safe seats.

Describing the current level of female representation as “un­acceptable’’, Mr Kroger told Sky News: “The real challenge for the party is to preselect women in safe seats; that is what needs to happen.

“If the current preselection branches don’t work to preselect women, then the party executives have to do it. The level of representation is unacceptable; we have been talking about this since I joined the Liberal Party in 1973.’’

Former minister and close Turnbull confidant Craig Laundy yesterday backed gender quotas.

“Whilst I agree completely with the principle of merit-based pre­selections, where we find ourself today is at a disproportionate representation of men versus women,” he said.

Mr Bragg’s polling of 1000 ­people came after similar polling he conducted on the Sunday after Mr Turnbull resigned from parliament put the Liberal primary vote at 48 per cent. However, this was conducted without Dr Phelps in the race. Labor polling has had the ­Liberals on 42 per cent, with Australia Institute polling last month having the government on 39.

Some moderates sources claimed last night that Mr Morrison would now back Ms O’Regan for preselection, but a source close to the Prime Minister said he was staying out of it.

Mr Bragg dismissed claims last night that he had left the preselection after a smear campaign against him, and said he just ­wanted to see a female candidate preselected.

Party sources suggested he had done a deal to go into the Senate.

“I believe the Liberal Party should preselect a woman and my withdrawal can pave the way,’’ Mr Bragg said.

Allegations of bullying by MPs during the leadership contest by Victorian MP Julia Banks “genuinely shocked me’’.

“Julia Banks’s exit from public life is a loss for all of us. Julia is ­exactly the type of professional woman that the Liberal Party must be able to attract and keep in parliament. Her loss is an enormous step in the wrong direction.’’

Additional reporting: Deborah Cornwall, Joe Kelly