Window of opportunity mists over for the backers of Kev 12

LEADERSHIP speculation is definitely causing panic within Labor's parliamentary ranks.

But it's not necessarily coming from where you might expect.

Julia Gillard's supporters were certainly panicking about a challenge by Kevin Rudd a few weeks ago - when powerbrokers thought they might not be able to control their troops.

However that was before her polling edged up and the Qantas fiasco moved the policy debate on to her preferred turf of industrial relations.

Instead there is now panic among Rudd supporters, who can see their window of opportunity for making a move closing fast. They know Rudd should challenge before the new year, both to guard against the possibility of Gillard continuing to recover and to prevent an alternative candidate emerging next year.

As Mark Latham pointed out yesterday, an Anyone But Rudd candidate would be backed by powerbrokers the moment they decided Gillard was finished.

The most panic is among journalists in the press gallery concerned they might miss the story if or when it happens. That happened when Rudd was rolled.

Yesterday's Daily Telegraph story stoking leadership speculation was initiated by a Rudd supporter in the NSW Right a day earlier, on the condition that it be written up immediately. He wanted it in the paper in time for some old-fashioned Parliament House scuttlebutt before the week off. He got what he wanted.

Because the Rudd push is led by backbenchers without real factional clout, and not party powerbrokers, it needs to use the media. Weakening Gillard through leadership speculation is therefore part of the strategy.

Backbenchers are worried they might lose their seats if Rudd doesn't return to save them, but powerbrokers worry that if he does they will lose their influence.

One supporter of the PM fingered new MP Ed Husic as being behind the Rudd push.

The end of the year is the traditional killing season for leaders struggling in the polls. While a Rudd challenge could materialise out of very little and very quickly, at the moment it is less likely, not more.